Full AQAP Inspire Issue Posted Online

I am fighting deadlines today, but I wanted to make a couple of quick observations following on my earlier pieces.

Coverage of AQ's "New English Magazine," 1 of 2

Coverage of AQ's "New English Magazine," 2 of 2

First, and most important, if the editors of Inspire are to be believed, then Anwar Awlaki did play a direct role in the creation and production of Inspire. There is at least one article by Awlaki which is characterized as an original piece written for the magazine.

So clarifying some earlier questions, the magazine is, at the least, formally endorsed by Awalki. I suspect we're still looking at a jihobbyist production, but as I noted earlier, Awlaki and AQAP's active role in the magazine does open the door to a "material support of terrorism" charge for any Americans who helped produce it.

The most important article in AQAP Inspire is not Awlaki's fairly pedestrian article on the Danish cartoons, but a guide for aspiring Westerners about what to expect and how to prepare when you go to jihad overseas.

The format still strongly resembles Jihad Recollections, but it seems to me the content is a bit more sophisticated and a bit more activist in terms of what it expects its readers to do after perusing the issue.

Overall, I'm sticking with much of my earlier analysis of the magazine as cited above. I will say that the magazine is, in some ways, a step up from Al-Hussam in terms of its sophistication as a magazine. It's probably also an upgrade in terms of content, except for the impression that its main participants (writers of original articles and editors) appear to the reader's eye to be mostly noncombatants -- a category that includes Awlaki, I might add. Al-Hussam had tremendous credibility for its unpretentious style and links to actual fighters. In contrast, Inspire is a bit effete.

That's all for now, but I may ring in with some additional thoughts later.

Labels: Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, Anwar-Aulaqi, Anwar-Awlaki, AQAP, Inspire-Magazine, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

AQAP Inspire Magazine Is Nothing New

All this has happened before, and it will happen again. Despite the fact that so many in the media and government are only just discovering that jihadists are trying to recruit Westerners, these programs have been going on -- successfully -- for decades. There is nothing new about what AQAP Inspire is trying to do.

Earlier examples, like the Al-Hussam newsletter shown below, were produced the legitimate successor to Abdullah Azzam's Services Office, which stage-managed the Arab jihad against the Soviets. I've spent a lot of time with Al-Hussam and its modern counterparts as research for my forthcoming book on American jihadists.




The difference between the 1980s, the 1990s and today is not so much a change in the jihadists. It's a change in media technology. Jihadists in the '80s and '90s distributed propaganda on videotape and paper newsletters.

Jihadists today have access to sophisticated publishing software that can be purchased off the shelf, relatively inexpensive, and they don't need to print their product on paper (despite what NPR would have you think).

More importantly, jihadists today have access to the Internet for distribution. This, more than anything, opens the door for products like Inspire. Al-Hussam, in contrast, was put out by professional jihadists.

Another difference, and an extremely important one, is that Al-Hussam had to be printed (which cost money), mailed (which cost money), or handed out at mosques, which cost money and also required approval from the mosque. Even 15 years ago, some mosques refused to allow this content and banned Al-Hussam from being distributed on their grounds. It would be an even tougher sell today.

The total bill for printing and mailing Al-Hussam was significantly north of $1,000 per issue, and its reach was limited by the number of copies that were printed. The total bill for an issue of Inspire was probably zero dollars, and if not for the drama around its release, it could have reached an unlimited number of people.

The Internet has served as a platform for jihadists for more than a decade, and while its use is ever-growing, it's not new. Inspire isn't new. None of this is new, and it's not really news.

Now don't get me wrong. I am all in favor of using incremental developments like the release of the magazine to discuss the overall issue of jihadist propaganda in English and otherwise. And I am happy to do so, whether here or in interviews.

But it should be an educated discussion, and not "Watch Out, Condé Nast: Al-Qaida Launches English-Language Lifestyle Mag." (Sorry, Danger Room.)

Labels: Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, AQAP, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Al Qaeda's New Magazine, Or Was It Web Site, Or Is It Really Al Qaeda? Or... Or...

This week saw the debut of a new English-language magazine called "Inspire" and branded as coming from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or rather, the first three pages of such a magazine. I don't think I've ever seen such a crazy welter of bad coverage.

To start with, dozens of news outlets began trumpeting Al Qaeda's new English-language "Web site" -- apparently an army of supposedly tech-savvy reporters and/or headline writers are unable to distinguish between PDF documents and Web sites. Apparently many major news outlets are also incapable of distinguishing between Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Al Qaeda central in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hint: Osama bin Laden is only directly involved with one of these groups. (At most.)

Then, the real hand-wringing began (and continues today). Was it REALLY an Al Qaeda magazine or was it fake? Few of the reporters could answer that question because they were all afraid to open it and actually read the magazine. Turns out the PDF got corrupted or was parsed wrongly in the first place, so the file just had three pages and then a lot of alphanumeric junk. Reporters and jihadis alike leapt to the conclusion that the file was some sort of Trojan horse that would beam your sexual preferences directly to the CIA. (Hint: The author prepared the PDF on a Mac.)

So reporters began not just reporting but analyzing a document they had not viewed, and which even if they had viewed it, they could basically only have read the cover and the table of contents. However, if they HAD read the three pages they might have noticed that it did not match their imaginings. Click here for the most egregious example of would-be analysis of a document that the analyst clearly had not even glanced at and the broader logic of which wouldn't stand up even if the actual magazine reflected the author's assumptions. (Hey, Max, in case you missed it, the "secretive" Ayman Al-Zawahiri and other top AQ leaders like Abu Yahya Al-Libi have written and distributed plenty of books online since 9/11, a publishing process which is identical to putting out this magazine.)

Could it be a FAKE? Let's take a moment to consider what that even means. First off, no one except hyperbolic journalists are even claiming that this magazine was produced by Al Qaeda Central. (Spoiler Alert! That's the one with Osama bin Laden.) The only question here is:

Was the document produced by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula proper or by its online jihobbyist fans?

If the latter, did AQAP formally endorse the publication?

If none of the above, was the document created by the CIA or online terrorist hunters to serve as misinformation or a trap?

The answers to these questions, in my opinion, are Jihobbyists, Maybe, and No.

The table of contents pretty clearly indicates that the magazine consists mainly of transcripts of earlier communiques by celebrity jihadists such as Bin Laden and AQAP's own Anwar Awlaki. There is nothing in the table of contents which suggests new or original material by anyone important. Click here to see the TOC as an image if you are too terrified to find and open the PDF.

The selection of authors (lots of celebs and relatively little from AQAP's main leaders) plus the fact that there doesn't seem to be any original material suggests that the person who assembled the magazine was not part of AQAP proper. In fact, the format of "Inspire" strongly resembles last year's "Jihad Recollections," composed by American jihadist blogger Samir Khan of North Carolina.

So assuming it is not a trap, a point which I will not belabor because those who think it is a trap are unlikely to be swayed by anything I say, the main question is whether AQAP formally endorsed the publication or played any other role in its publication. And to be honest, there is really only one reason to care about that question -- "material support."

When a lone American like Khan makes what is essentially a fan magazine about Al Qaeda, there is room for debate about whether he is exercising his first amendment rights. If an American like Khan is creating a magazine at the behest of AQAP or with its direct cooperation, that is material support for a terrorist organization, and as the Supreme Court recently ruled, exactly this kind of material support is appropriate for prosecution by the Justice Department.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, Anwar-Awlaki, Inspire-Magazine, Osama-Bin-Laden, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Quick Notes On Newest Adam Gadahn, Yahya Al Libi Videos

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com
In around January or February, Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media operation suffered a serious setback. We don't know the details, but some key node in the media shop was taken out, with clearly visible results. Where once there were near-HD videos, now there were Webcam-quality videos. Where once there was low-quality video, now there was audio.

Over the last several days, it has become clear that whatever happened (let's say, drone attack on the studio), As-Sahab is back. Two recent videos from senior AQ leader Yahya Al Libi and American Al Qaeda Adam Gadahn (who also runs the media shop) show a return to nearly complete functionality.

Both videos are in near-HD quality, although with some compression, which suggests to me they are using a high-end consumer camcorder. Before 9/11, Al Qaeda used professional media equipment from time to time, but since then, HD camcorders are pretty much the state of the art. That's just smart business. When you're distributing over the Internet, you don't need anything bulkier or more expensive.

The Al Libi video features a CGI background. It's been quite a while since we saw that in an Al Qaeda video. So that means they're back up with a quality laptop too. Gadahn's video features a black background, but a spiffy Bill O'Reilly/Colbert Report style text sidebar.

One final note of interest. Gadahn's video was released today, June 20, 2010, and the content is noteworthy only in its failure to mention Times Square or the Gaza Flotilla. A closer look shows that the file appears to have been last modified on April 10. This might mean that As-Sahab reconstituted its camera in the spring but didn't get replace it's presumed-exploded laptop until very recently. It also means that, technically, we haven't seen Gadahn for at least two months (assuming his last video is also dated back this far). Also, April 10 is the modified date, not the create date, so it's possible the video was recorded even earlier.

P.S. Remember the reports this spring that some American named Abu Yahya Mujahdeen Al Adam had been arrested in Pakistan? That was around March 9 or 10, and the new video references the March 11, 2010, State Department Human Rights report.

So Adam II is definitely not the same guy as Adam I. But it's possible Adam II worked for As-Sahab, and his capture might have sent Adam I scrambling for the hills without his laptop. Just a thought.

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Abu-Yahya-Mujahdeen-al-Adam, Adam-Gadahn, Al-Qaeda, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Terrorists, Azzam-the-American, Weblog

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National Geographic Explorer: Talibanistan

National Geographic Explorer presents Talibanistan, a documentary on the activities of the Taliban along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. INTELWIRE's parent company, the Multifaceted Media Group, contributed footage of insurgents to the program. The episode airs Tuesday, June 8, at 10 p.m. Eastern. Natgeo's episode description is as follows:

For eight years the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have bogged down US and NATO troops in Afghanistan-all the while seizing territory and creating chaos in nuclear-armed Pakistan. In mid October, under pressure from the US, Pakistan announced that it would launch a military campaign designed to destroy the Taliban, The Taliban responded with a series of brazen attacks against the Pakistani Army, the police, and civilians, leaving the US in doubt over Pakistans ability to secure its nuclear weapons, and its own ability to fight the agile Taliban in Afghanistan. National Geographic Explorer was in Pakistan and Afghanistan during these explosive days documenting the fight on the ground and in the skies above this territory controlled by the Taliban, known as "Talibanistan." Explorer asks the question: who is winning this war and is this Obama's Vietnam or will he be the first to pacify Afghanistan?

For more information about how your production can commission research and license terrorist and insurgent footage from INTELWIRE and MMG, click here.

Labels: Afghanistan, Multifaceted-Media-Group, National-Geographic, Pakistan, Stock-Footage, Taliban, Weblog

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Fox News Reporting: The American Terrorist, Anwar Awlaki

A few INTELWIRE exclusive documents were referenced in tonight's special "Fox News Reporting: The American Terrorist." The program airs throughout the weekend. I will be featuring a chapter on Awalki in my forthcoming book on American jihadists.

The documentary also mentioned the Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW), a Yemeni charity which the FBI has investigated as a terrorist financing vehicle. Awlaki worked for the charity during the 1990s.

At least $3.5 million was allocated by the Labor Department to fund a three-year partnership between the Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW), based in Yemen, and CHF International, a Maryland-based foundation, to fight child labor and child trafficking starting in fiscal year 2008. Click here for full story.

Click here to look at documents exploring Awlaki's links to the September 11 hijackers, including documents featured on the program.

Click here for more stories and documents related to Awlaki.

See also:

Labels: Anwar-Aulaqi, Anwar-Awlaki, INTELWIRE-Exclusive, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Al Qaeda Financing: Not Dead Yet

Hard on the heels of an arrest for Al Qaeda financing in New York comes a plea deal from a Kansas City man, Khalid Ouazzani, a Moroccan national and a naturalized American citizen, who defrauded Bank of America and other sources for hundreds of thousands of dollars, at least $23,000 of which was provided directly to Al Qaeda. Once again, this illustrates the fact that Al Qaeda proper might be down, but it is certainly not out.

These last two cases represent around $75,000 in financing provided to Al Qaeda-branded operations by American citizens. We can safely assume they are the tip of the iceberg. And if Americans are raising potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars for Al Qaeda operations, what is happening in the rest of the world? Al Qaeda proper may be reduced to a shadow of its former self in many respects, but it casts that shadow long and even a lowball estimate of its finances still represents more than enough money to carry out serious terrorist attacks.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Terrorists, Khalid-Ouazzani, Terrorist-Financing, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

AQAP Promises A New 9/11 If Anwar Awlaki Is Killed

UPDATED: 4:57 p.m.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula threatened a new 9/11 attack on the United States if American forces kill Yemeni-American cleric Anwar Awlaki.

The audio recording in support of Awalki was issued today by AQAP chief Abu Basir Nasir al-Wuhayshi.

"We are enamored with the attacks of September 11," Basir said, pledging to protect Awlaki from U.S. attacks, according to a translation by Reuters. President Barak Obama recently authorized U.S. forces to target and kill Awalki, an American citizen.

The recording, which is in Arabic, provides an interesting window into Awalki's current status among Arabic speaking jihadis.

Until recently, Awlaki might as well have been the invisible man on the Arabic jihadist forums. The reasons for this aren't totally clear to me, but it may have to do with him being perceived as an American first, and a Yemeni second. His releases were almost always in English, and while there is a cottage industry translating jihadist material from Arabic to English, that train doesn't often reverse direction.

When he released a video in Arabic through AQAP's Al Malahim production company, it looked to be a breakthrough for him. But the video appeared on Al Jazeera and the full-length version never surfaced on the forums. And the AJ video wasn't linked from the Arabic forums either, at least not prominently. When the people in charge of the forums like someone, it's hard to miss it -- the moderators post multiple banner ads and giant headlines.

Enter this new audio, a celebrity endorsement of Awalki -- landing before the actual Awlaki video has been posted. This suggests to me that AQAP feels that it needs to prepare the ground for our Anwar.

A banner ad promoting the audio release was posted second from the top by the mods on the Al Fallujah forum as of 5 p.m. ET. Typically about a dozen communiques from various terrorist groups are highlighted with banner ads and headlines at the top of each forum page. Upwards of 20 Al Fallujah posters had replied with positive comments about the video, endorsing the forum's endorsement of Awalki.

The Majahden forum posted the banner at the very top of the page, indicating a strong endorsement. Al-Qimmah, a Somali and Arabic forum, did use the banner but interestingly the English-language Al Ansar had not posted it, as of noon Sunday. By 1 p.m., Shaimkh was playing Awlaki fourth from the top, basically over the fold, but it looks to be a "slow news day."

All of this is probably a pre-show to the actual Awlaki video being released.

This post has been corrected.

Labels: Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Aulaqi, Anwar-Awlaki, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Sneak Preview of CNN's 'American Al Qaeda' Special

The series airs on AC360 this week, at 10 p.m. Eastern each night, and an hourlong documentary version will air on Saturday, May 15, at 8 and 11 p.m. Eastern. This features the first ever interview with the best friend of Bryant Neal Vinas, an American Al Qaeda operative.

Labels: American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Bryant-Neal-Vinas, CNN, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

The Genius of Radicalism

Revolution Muslim managed to illustrate the reason its bloggers hate South Park so much. They are seriously humor-impaired. It's an occupational hazard when you spend all your days and nights trying to maximize your rage.

Anyway, RM posted an item discussing the watchlisting of Faisal Shahzad. The post by Taliba Al Quran was pulled back pretty quickly this morning but I happened to catch it before it vanished.

This "law enforcement system" uses methods like this, from Andy Borowitz's article:

The surveillance team's revelations come on the heels of the Dept. of Homeland Security's shocker that it had friended Mr. Shahzad on Facebook weeks ago and had even played the popular online game Farmville with him.

"A few days before the Times Square incident, Mr. Shahzad attempted to blow up one of our sheep," a Department spokesman said. "In retrospect, that should have been a red flag."

Yes, you may want to read that again. Blowing up a sheep in an online game should "raise red flags." Ya Allah protect us all from these "Security" people! Well, it should serve as a lesson. If you are playing an online game, and are Muslim - don't blow stuff up in "Farmville."

Yes, you may want to read that again. RM bloggers are so eager to wind up their engines of outrage over imagined slights to Muslims that they actually believed DHS was playing Farmville on Facebook with Faisal Shahzad last week.

Labels: Faisal-Shahzad, Revolution-Muslim, South-Park, Times-Square, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Mehsud Letter Again Cites Aafia Siddiqi

From the Associated Press:

In an undated letter obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, the militant commander, Hakimullah Mehsud, threatened attacks on America and Pakistan in retaliation for the conviction in the United States of Aafia Siddiqui, a 37-year old Pakistani scientist.

Siddiqui was convicted in New York in February of trying to kill American service personnel in Afghanistan. Her case has triggered anger among Pakistani Islamist $groups and in sections of the media, where she is portrayed as innocent.
The letter is addressed to Siddiqui's sister, Fozia, who is campaigning for her release.

"We are with you in the pain you have suffered in connection with Aafia Siddiqui. God willing, we will give a reply to America and the cruel rulers in Pakistan in such a way they will remember for their whole life."
The letter was given to the AP by a reporter for the local TV station that first reported its existence.

Click on the tag for previous posts on this subject.

Labels: Aafia-Siddiqui, Hakimullah-Mehsud, Pakistan, Taliban, Times-Square, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Times Square: A Dramatic Arrest And A Parcel Of New Questions

In a dramatic last-minute save, Faisal Shahzad, a naturalized American citizen of Pakistani origin, was snatched off an airplane bound for Dubai and a connection to Pakistan.

The FBI issued a cautiously worded statement indicating it was still looking for possible other conspirators, but Shahzad claimed to have been working alone. He had traveled to Dubai at least one time previously.

It's not clear when he was last in Pakistan, and his family is from the Northwest. All of this lends significant credibility to Sunday's claim of responsibility by the Pakistani Taliban, first reported by the Long War Journal. The claim was initially greeted with some skepticism by many people, including (I must admit) myself. A follow-up message indicated that multiple terrorist operatives were deployed to the U.S., a possibility which must be taken very seriously.

HAKIMULLAH MEHSUD

The head of a major Pakistani Taliban faction, Hakimullah Mehsud has not exactly been a household name in the United States, although he's a well-known figure to anyone following events in the Af/Pak region.

Mehsud was thought to be dead, or at least that's the story the Pakistani government was peddling, so his sudden re-emergence in conjunction with an attack on the U.S. homeland is a rather dramatic turn of events and one which leaves Pakistani counterterrorism officials with egg on their collective face.

As I noted earlier, the Pak Taliban claim of responsibility for the "recent attack" in the U.S. cited U.S. treatment of Aafia Siddiqi as one of the reasons for the attack. It's bad enough that Mehsud came back from the dead in dramatic manner to strike a blow against the United States on its own soil (albeit a failed blow), but that attack is also tied to an issue that has a lot of traction among ordinary Pakistanis. As I reported a couple weeks ago, the tale of Aafia Siddiqi has been boiling over in Pakistani media outlets, with no sign of cooling.

In short, the narrative around this attack really catapults Mehsud into a position of prominence and imbues him with some populist credibility he previously lacked. It's a dangerous development. Terrorism is storytelling, and Mehsud's story just became a lot more compelling. Let's hope he doesn't have any additional operatives running around on U.S. soil.

Finally, some reports have indicated that the Taliban videos were posted from Connecticut, where Shahzad lives. The first claim video was fairly generic, but if Shahzad (or another member of his cell) was empowered to post the first video of Mehsud since his alleged death, that means he's probably more than just a useful idiot. On the other hand, that conclusion is undermined by the bomb itself.

THE BOMB DESIGN

If Shahzad is indeed affiliated with the Pak Taliban, it's really surprising that he didn't use a better bomb design.

Keep in mind that when I and others talk about the bomb design being "good" or "bad" or "amateurish" we're not saying it's undangerous or that it might not have gone off and killed people.

What "amateurish" means is that the bomb is 1) inefficient for its size, 2) not suited to its apparent target, and 3) not equipped with a reliable detonation system.

In this case, the bomb is also "amateur" looking in that it doesn't resemble the most common forms of improvised explosive devices which have traditionally been taught by Al Qaeda and its allies in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

So if Shahzad was born in Pakistan, and his family hails from the Northwest (near Peshawar per CNN TV), how is it that he became involved in this kind of operation without getting better training in bomb design?

It's possible that Shahzad was simply personally incompetent. Terrorists come in all varieties, ranging from stupid to brilliant. However, bombs come in all varieties too, from simple to complicated, and the Times Square bomb was a bad combination of complicated and inept. If Shahzad was incompetent, but working for Mehsud, I would have expected his handlers to give him the simplest possible shopping list for bomb components.

I'll have some more thoughts about this when we have more facts.

Labels: American-Jihadists, Faisal-Shahzad, Hakimullah-Mehsud, Pakistan, Taliban, Times-Square, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Disturbing Thought of the Day

Via SpyTalk:

[Charles] Faddis, also author of “Willful Neglect, The Dangerous Illusion of Homeland Security,” said “terrorist groups all around the world have run probing ops in the past. Leave a package outside an embassy and then watch how security deals with it.”

“Let's hope it is not the latter, because that would imply some very smart boys have something much bigger in mind,” he said.

This would potentially explain a lot. If the device was a method to test chemical detection systems, for instance, it would be a hodge-podge of materials just like the one that was found -- gunpowder, fertilizer, propane, gasoline. And if it was to test responder times and traffic, you would make sure there were real explosives so you could track the whole process, but you wouldn't put a lot of trouble into the design.

Not enough evidence yet to say for certain, and hopefully we'll have a suspect in custody soon to refute the idea, but the number of things I don't like about the last 24 hours seems to be piling up...

UPDATE TUESDAY: CNN is now reporting a piece of data I have been waiting for. According to them, a surveillance camera caught the bomb-rigged Pathfinder entering Times Square about two minutes before it started smoking. In my opinion, this significant reduces the odds that this was a test run -- one of the things that a potential bomber would be trying to evaluate is how long the unattended vehicle could be left double-parked without attracting notice.

Labels: American-Jihadists, Faisal-Shahzad, Times-Square, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

LWJ: Pakistani Taliban Claim "Recent Attack" in US

The Long War Journal is reporting that the Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the failed attack in Times Square last night.

The claim does not make it so, but the LWJ offers some compelling reasons to think it may be legitimate. If so, this is a very interesting situation in light of the observations below, should they prove to be the culprits. I'll have more to say about that later, should the claim prove true.

An important counter-indicator is that the communique does not specify New York or Times Square, which is something between curious and suspicious. The person who posted the YouTube video may have been told to watch for an attack around this time, but may not have been told what attack to look for. That means a professional terrorist attack may still be in the works.

Also worth noting is that the message specifically cites the treatment of Aafia Siddiqi as a motive for the attack (among several other things). This may indicate an effort to win Pakistani hearts and minds -- Siddiqi's case in extremely contentious in Pakistan, where she has become something of a folk hero, depicted as a victim of America.

UPDATE: A new video of Haikimullah Mehsud, a top Pakistani Taliban leader, surfaced today to definitively refute reports of his death and to threaten attacks on the U.S. homeland within a month. That makes me increasingly uneasy that the real attack has not yet arrived. (See also this.)

Click here to see the claim of responsibility.

Labels: Aafia-Siddiqui, American-Jihadists, Faisal-Shahzad, New-York, Pakistan, Taliban, Times-Square, Weblog

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

First Thoughts on Times Square Bomb

UPDATE 12:13 p.m. EST: The Long War Journal is reporting that the Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the failed attack in Times Square last night. My immediate reaction to this can be found here. END UPDATE

Story here. Or you can watch CNN live for some truly worthless speculation.

My first thoughts (aka worthless speculation): If the descriptions of the bomb design are accurate, this certainly sounds like an amateur effort. It was made up of fireworks, a relatively small amount of gasoline and propane as well as some fairly random-sounding components.

The vehicle was left running with its hazard lights on, which also smacks of amateurism. It was parked on a street corner rather than targeting a building from a parking garage. It was an SUV (with windows) rather than a van or a truck (which not only hold more explosives but are more difficult to peer into). There were apparently no shrapnel generators, which a pro (or someone getting professional help online) would have used in a device targeting a crowd rather than a building and which can be easily improvised by someone with even a rudimentary knowledge of bomb-making. However, there was an ammo box in the vehicle, which hasn't been opened as of this writing and could have contained such components.

The amateur design doesn't preclude the involvement of AQ or another organized component, but it does reduce the odds. Even a casual jihadist or a typical domestic anti-government extremist would be able to build a better bomb.

If an amateur effort, the suspects would include a petty criminal or criminals or a depressed or mentally ill person lashing out in a disorganized and relatively spontaneous manner.

This person could still be motivated by classically terrorist ideology, such as jihadism or white supremacy, but there are such robust communities in the U.S. for both of these ideologies, it's difficult to see how one could have an interest in one of those subjects and still put together such an amateurish bomb.

If you look at the Underwear Bomber, for instance, his device was sophisticated even if his execution was not. PETN is not a amateur's tool. Fireworks and gasoline are another story.

I'm available to talk to journalists on this subject today on telephone, Skype or at Boston-area studios. Contact me if you need something.

UPDATE 11 a.m. EDT: Authorities have found a VIN number on the vehicle, which will help them trace its ownership. Interestingly, the primary VIN number had been obscured in some way, which is a much more professional-type of action than the bomb would suggest. If confirmed, this most likely means the car was bought from a chop shop, although it could indicate that the bomber was a mechanic or worked some other sort of profession relating to cars.

However, a mechanic would have built a better bomb. Although the bomb is pretty low-end, as discussed above, a few simple tweaks could have made it work better, and it would still have provided a pretty big bang even if it wouldn't have been as lethal as a professional-grade device.

Labels: American-Jihadists, Faisal-Shahzad, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

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A quick recap of recent site headlines:

Dangerous New Shift In Video From Top Al Qaeda Leader

The Power of Dissent (Fitna)

INTELWIRE Exclusive: U.S. Granted Millions to Al Qaeda-Linked Charity

Anwar Awlaki's Path

How Many American Jihadists?

INTELWIRE Exclusive: State Department Cables on Bhutto Assassination

Labels: Site-News, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Napolitano Has Got To Go

I don't like to get into politics on this site, but Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano appeared on CNN's "The Situation Room" this evening and blew my mind. Host Suzanne Malveauz asked a direct and fairly simple question: How did she prioritize the threat of domestic extremism vs. Al Qaeda extremism vs. Other?

MALVEAUX: What is the biggest threat now facing Americans?

Is it from a domestic attack, is it from local groups or is it from foreign groups like Al Qaeda?

NAPOLITANO: You know, I don't have the luxury of ranking those things.

Remember the outrage after the underwear bombing incident, when she claimed "the system worked"? This statement makes that one look brilliant. I was willing to hold my tongue last time, hoping it was a gaffe rather than an indicator of incompetence. But if DHS can't prioritize terrorist threats, then we're in big trouble.

Obviously, someone in the federal government is deciding how to allocate resources for homeland security, and that person had better be making that decision based on the priority of the threat. But that person is supposed to be the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

Answering "What is the biggest threat?" is the JOB DESCRIPTION of the DHS chief. Anyone who can't mount a sensible response should not be filling one of the most important jobs in this country.

Napolitano has got to go.

Here's the rest of the exchange. Note that Malveaux can't quite believe the answer either, although she was too polite. Regular host Wolf Blitzer would have been better in this "situation."

NAPOLITANO (continued): We have to lean forward and be prepared for both, that it could be an international terrorist or a domestic terrorist. It could be someone who is a -- a U.S. citizen who now has been trained in an international camp and come back.

All of those things are phenomenon that are currently happening in the United States. All of them are things that, you know, we are constantly working, as I said, to -- to minimize the risk that they could actually go from those kind of extremist and violent extremist beliefs into violent action.

MALVEAUX: But certainly, Madam Secretary, there's a way of measuring which -- which organization, which group, which individual is -- is most prepared and perhaps the most potentially threatening to the United States?

NAPOLITANO: Well, I -- I'm not sure. I think that's a -- you know, I think that's a question the media might ask.

I'm not sure that's quite the way that law enforcement would respond. Because if we are attacked internationally, it doesn't give any comfort if I say, yes, well, internationally, it was ranked number two or -- or the reverse.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Analysis, DHS, Domestic-Extremism, Janet-Napolitano, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Exclusive: U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki

Yemeni government official Hamoud Hattar, left, and Al Qaeda-linked cleric Abdul Majid Zindani at an October 2009 Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW) event in Yemen. Hattar on June 7 announced that Yemen will not extradite Awlaki to the United States.

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

Updated June 23, 2010

The U.S. Department of Labor gave millions of dollars to a joint venture that included a Yemeni charity with extensive links to Al Qaeda.

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At least $3.5 million was allocated by the Labor Department to fund a three-year partnership between the Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW), based in Yemen, and CHF International, a Maryland-based foundation, to fight child labor and child trafficking starting in fiscal year 2008.

The money was provided through a grant by the Labor Department's Office of Child Labor, Forced Labor, and Human Trafficking (OCFT), according to a Labor Department press release, the agency's Web site and Middle Eastern news sources (link, link).

Wanted fugitive and radical Yemeni-American cleric Anwar Awlaki served as a vice president for the organization during the 1990s. Awlaki is also believed to be associated with Al Qaeda (link). Awlaki's name is listed on an IRS Form 990 filed by the Charitable Society for Social Welfare for an now-defunct U.S. branch of the organization. Click here to read the CSSW tax form, which is a public record. Awlaki is listed as vice president on page 4 of the document.

CSSW spokesman Jamal Al-Haddi denied that the organization was connected to the Yemeni CSSW and denied that Awlaki ever worked for the Yemen branch of the organization. He told INTELWIRE in an e-mail that "CSSW has no branches outside Republic of Yemen. No official or unofficial branch of CSSW in the United States."

However CSSW's own Web site, in an archived page found on Archive.org, shows that in 2003 CSSW listed contact information for branches in Brooklyn, Detroit and San Diego. The 990 form shows that CSSW had directors in all three cities, including Awlaki in San Diego, whose listed address is the Ar-Ribat mosque. Two of the September 11 hijackers attended that mosque while Awlaki was imam there. The archived link was provided by Evan Kohlmann, a senior investigator with the NEFA Foundation.

The U.S.-based organization claims on its tax form that it provides services and support for orphans in Yemen, just as the Sana-based CSSW does. According to additional tax documents obtained by the NEFA Foundation, CSSW intitially claimed it was not related to CSSW in Yemen in an IRS 1023 filing. But the charity's attorney, Ronald Rose, later admitted, in response to IRS questions, that the two organizations were closely linked.

The complete letter can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation Web site, which states, "Despite recent statements from CSSW's head office in Yemen strongly denying any link to al-Awlaki or the affiliate group in Kansas he helped manage, Mr. Rose's letter appears to paint a sharply contrasting picture." The letter states:

In general, the distributions of funds raised by this charity will not go directly to individuals…to provide assistance for people who have been victimized by the civil wars in Yemen and Somalia… A similar charitable organization exists in the nation of Yemen, whose goals are the same. In many cases, application for benefits will be submitted through the organization in Yemen and contributed funds will be routed through this organization to the ultimate recipients. The role of the charitable organization in Yemen will be to act as an agent or facilitator for the distribution of benefits from the Society.

The Brooklyn branch of CSSW was the subject of an FBI terrorism financing investigation in 2003, five years prior to the Department of Labor grant approval. Al-Haddi did not respond to a question on this issue. The terrorism financing investigation was known as "Black Bear." Click here to read a court filing which provides some details of the investigation.

The filing was made by the defense team for Numan Maflahi, a Yemeni-born U.S. citizen who was convicted of lying to federal agents in a terrorism financing investigation. Click here for a New York Times story about the conviction. Click here for an Associated Press story on the investigation of CSSW.

The Washington Post reported in 2008 that CSSW was founded by Abdul Majid Al Zindani, a veteran of the jihad against the Soviet Union and its civil war aftermath. Zindani was an associate of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, according to published reports and exclusive documents obtained by INTELWIRE. Zindani has been designated as a member or associate of Al Qaeda by both the U.S. government and the United Nations.

Documents filed in a U.S. terrorism prosecution state that the Yemeni government considered the Al Iman University, run by Zindani, "as a 'nest for terrorism' that exports and propagates terrorism." Click here to read the document. Awlaki lectured at the University, according to the Washington Post and other sources.

Al-Haddi denied that Zindani had ever played any role in the organization. Neither Awlaki or Zindani has "never have been part of CSSW either as founders, members of Managerial Boards, employees, consultants volunteers or any position in CSSW," Al-Haddi wrote in an email. When asked if CSSW had requested a correction from Washington Post, he said that he had not but intended to.

However, the CSSW Web site again seems to contradict Al-Haddi's statement.

CSSW's Web site contains stories on a 2009 "Orphan's Festival" event featuring Zindani as a featured speaker in a central role. Zindani is named on the page, which also features a photograph of the cleric at the center dias of the event. Click here for the original page in Arabic, and click here for a cached copy of the the page. The event was also extensively covered in the organization's newsletter. A cached copy of the story may be viewed by clicking here.

When asked about the photos, Al-Haddi said that Zindani's presence at the 2009 festival was simply as an attendee due to Zindani's participation in the Yemeni government in 1990. He also suggested that Zindani was only one of 500 participants, and played no role at the conference.

However, photos of the event, found on an Arabic Web site Yemen-Sound.com, show Zindani seated prominently in the front row of the event and handing out awards from the stage. The CSSW Web site additionally describes Zindani as a speaker at the event.

In several photos, Zindani appears with another speaker at the event, Judge Hamoud Hattar, who in June announced that Yemen will not extradite Anwar Awlaki to the United States. Hattar, ironically, has gained a measure of fame for his "deradicalization" efforts with Yemeni extremists in prison.

Yemeni government official Hamoud Hattar, left, and Al Qaeda-linked cleric Abdul Majid Zindani at an October 2009 Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW) event in Yemen.

Also at the event was Sheikh Aed Al Qarni, who can be seen in this video calling on Allah to "destroy the Jews" and praising jihadists attacking American forces in Iraq.

Sheikh Aed Al Qarni at an October 2009 Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW) event in Yemen.

The CSSW Web site lists partner organizations including the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) and the Qatar Charitable Society, both of which are believed by the U.S. government to be Al Qaeda financing vehicles. The U.S. alleges that IIRO helped finance the Manila-based Bojinka plot to blow up U.S. airliners in 1995. According to an Al Qaeda informant, Osama bin Laden has stated that Qatar Charitable Society funds were used to pay for an attempt to assassinate Egyptian President Hosni Mubarek, also in 1995.

This story has been substantially updated with CSSW denials and with additional documentation which supports the story. For the full text of comments from CSSW's Al-Haddi, click here.

Labels: Abdul-Majid-Zindani, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Aulaqi, Anwar-Awlaki, Charitable-Society-for-Social-Welfare, INTELWIRE-Exclusive, Weblog, Yemen

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

A Significant Discussion About Takfir

According to Al Sharq Al Awsat, a group of senior Saudi clerics is discussing a proposal to criminalize "takfiri" fatwas which claim that people taking part in certain kinds of activity are not to be considered Muslims.

While a positive development, there is an important loophole -- the proposed rule would only prohibit takfiri fatwas from "non-official institutions." Sorry, Ahmadiyyas! Apparently takfir is OK when it's coming from the Saudi establishment.

The definition of what is an "official" institution is also in play. There are a lot of Islamic institutions outside of Saudi Arabia which rely on Saudi financial support, and not all of them are exemplars of tolerance and brotherly love. Would all of these institutions be covered by this ban, or would it just apply within the kingdom?

Furthermore, the stated motive for this proposal is not exactly pristine from an Islamic standpoint. A source explained to Al Sharq that the non-official takfiri fatwa phenomenon "diminishes the prestige of the state, as well as impacting on external relations between Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world." That sounds like nationalism, which is a no-no under the Saudi interpretation of Islam, and it also sounds like a politically expedient decision rather than a principled stand.

And what is the penalty for issuing a non-official takfiri fatwa? Will the Saudis declare takfir against offenders? And doesn't that undercut the whole point of this exercise?

Whether for good -- in that it diminishes the strength of the takfiri movement -- or for ill -- in that it highlights the hypocrisy of the Saudi establishment for all Muslims to see -- this discussion is worth watching. If a ruling emerges, there will almost certainly be repercussions. Beware the law of unintended consequences.

In other takfiri news, Dr. Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, a prominent Islamic scholar with one foot in the east and one in the west, has issued a fatwa against terrorism which states that terrorists who are "burning the Muslims are debarred from the fold of Islam."

Will those who live by the sword of takfir also die by it? This seems a little dicey to me. Also take note that the takfir in this case applies only to terrorists who kill Muslims. The fatwa does prohibit terrorism against non-Muslim targets, but no penalty is specified.

Labels: Analysis, Saudi-Arabia, Takfir, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink