Quick Notes On Newest Adam Gadahn, Yahya Al Libi Videos

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com
In around January or February, Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media operation suffered a serious setback. We don't know the details, but some key node in the media shop was taken out, with clearly visible results. Where once there were near-HD videos, now there were Webcam-quality videos. Where once there was low-quality video, now there was audio.

Over the last several days, it has become clear that whatever happened (let's say, drone attack on the studio), As-Sahab is back. Two recent videos from senior AQ leader Yahya Al Libi and American Al Qaeda Adam Gadahn (who also runs the media shop) show a return to nearly complete functionality.

Both videos are in near-HD quality, although with some compression, which suggests to me they are using a high-end consumer camcorder. Before 9/11, Al Qaeda used professional media equipment from time to time, but since then, HD camcorders are pretty much the state of the art. That's just smart business. When you're distributing over the Internet, you don't need anything bulkier or more expensive.

The Al Libi video features a CGI background. It's been quite a while since we saw that in an Al Qaeda video. So that means they're back up with a quality laptop too. Gadahn's video features a black background, but a spiffy Bill O'Reilly/Colbert Report style text sidebar.

One final note of interest. Gadahn's video was released today, June 20, 2010, and the content is noteworthy only in its failure to mention Times Square or the Gaza Flotilla. A closer look shows that the file appears to have been last modified on April 10. This might mean that As-Sahab reconstituted its camera in the spring but didn't get replace it's presumed-exploded laptop until very recently. It also means that, technically, we haven't seen Gadahn for at least two months (assuming his last video is also dated back this far). Also, April 10 is the modified date, not the create date, so it's possible the video was recorded even earlier.

P.S. Remember the reports this spring that some American named Abu Yahya Mujahdeen Al Adam had been arrested in Pakistan? That was around March 9 or 10, and the new video references the March 11, 2010, State Department Human Rights report.

So Adam II is definitely not the same guy as Adam I. But it's possible Adam II worked for As-Sahab, and his capture might have sent Adam I scrambling for the hills without his laptop. Just a thought.

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Abu-Yahya-Mujahdeen-al-Adam, Adam-Gadahn, Al-Qaeda, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Terrorists, Azzam-the-American, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

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Abu Yahya Al-Libi: All Americans Must Be Killed Even If They Capitulate

Top Al Qaeda leader Abu Yahya Al-Libi is out with a new, and particularly grim, tract comparing America to the Bani Quraidah, a Jewish tribe that once came into conflict with Mohammed, resulting in all the adult males being killed, and the women and children being taken as slaves, according to a mix of hadith and Quranic sources.

The takeaway from this 20-page work is rather specific and quite possibly a signpost to trouble ahead. Al-Libi is arguing:

1) The harshest punishment is justified for those who ally themselves with the enemies of Islam, even if those people do not commit overt acts against Muslims.

2) That punishment, in the case of the Quraidah, was that all of the adult males were killed and all women and children taken as slaves. Al-Libi goes out of his way to point out that this punishment was meted out after the Quraidah surrendered.

3) The United States meets the same criteria for judgment as the Quraidah.

The expansion of the conflict here is in keeping with Al Qaeda's practices, although I don't recall seeing it stated so bluntly and justified so elaborately before.

Basically, Al-Libi is saying that every adult male American ought to be killed, whether or not they submit to the judgment of Muslims (meaning Al Qaeda, of course), and whether or not they have specifically taken up arms against Muslims and whether or not they continue to be at war with Muslims.

Or, to use his words, they are to be killed "not just as a punishment for the crime which they have committed in the past" but "to cut off the very substance of their evil." He specifically includes prisoners taken on the battlefield in this category, although he takes pains to say that his point is much broader.

Al-Libi makes a few references to the White House outreach to Muslims and efforts at conciliation in Afghanistan which make me think this piece is designed to shore up resistance to the rumblings from Karzai government and elsewhere about trying to work out some sort of conditional accommodation with tribal and Taliban factions.

The argument here is a shift from Osama bin Laden's earlier declarations of war against the U.S., which were largely predicated on specific foreign policy offenses. Al-Libi is saying that America has crossed a threshold and should be fought, not for what it does, but for what it is, and that no amount of capitulation is enough to end the killing.

Although this represents a serious escalation in some ways, especially as far as actions carried out by the committed AQ core, I think it could be an indicator that Al-Libi's radical constituency in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the world (including his homeland of Libya) is getting tired of fighting and thinking -- however preliminarily -- about what kind of peace they might be willing to accept.

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Yahya Al Libbi: The Plot Thickens

Pakistani officials speaking anonymously have claimed that the senior Al Qaeda leader killed in Pakistan this week by a drone attack was, in fact, Yahya Al-Libbi. See stories here, here and here.

As reported here first yesterday, the jihadi forums have been rife with rumors that Al-Libbi was killed in the attack. However, a source at a leading Al Qaeda forum today posted that Al-Libbi was "100 percent alive and well," and the report was validated by the forum's moderator, which suggests the poster has some claim to credibility.

Shykh Abu Yahya Al Libi Hafizaullah is alive and 100% ok with good health n eman the recent rumor spread by kuffar is just their stupidity insha'Allah they will get answer for it.

All of this falls under the label "speculation," however. The Pakistanis have been eager to name names when these drone attacks occur. They have prematurely buried Osama bin Laden, Ayman Al Zawahiri and Mustafa Al Yazid on multiple occasions. They are, to be blunt, completely unreliable in these matters.

UPDATE: According to the New York Times, Pakistani officials are insisting and U.S. officials are denying that Al-Libbi was killed in the attack. END UPDATE

If Al-Libbi is dead, it's extremely good news for the U.S. I was one of the very first analysts to start making noise about the threat Al-Libbi poses to Western interests on many levels.

On the down side, if he's alive, this false report is likely to enhance his standing. One of Al-Libbi's strengths, as I wrote before, is the fact he escaped from a U.S. run prison in Bagram air base in Afghanistan. This is a feat of military prowess which is very specific and very impressive, and the escape went a long way to establishing Al-Libbi's bonafides as a top-level jihadist -- he's a thinker and he's a tough guy, which is a compelling combination.

For Al-Libbi to "come back from the dead" after a premature announcement by the Pakistanis or (God forbid) by U.S. officials would thrust him even further into the limelight. Which is a bad thing. Al-Libbi -- young, charismatic and tough as nails -- is potentially more dangerous as a long-term leader for Al Qaeda than the fading stars of Zawahiri and Bin Laden. The last thing he needs is any help from us.

Previous stories on Al Libi:

A Leader Who Could Revitalize Al Qaeda

Infidel Bug Spoils Speech

The New Al Qaeda Central

Other news on INTELWIRE:

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: 'Pakistan Five' Struck From The Mold

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: Five American Jihadists Arrested in Pakistan

INTELFILES: Hal Turner Court Records

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: David Coleman Headley

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: American Muslims Threatened Over Nidal Hasan

INTELWIRE WEBLOG: Convicting Khalid Shaikh Mohammed

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: A Key Failure In Understanding Nidal Hasan

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Yahya Al Libi: 'I'm Not Dead Yet!'

This is far from a reliable source, but the jihadis at Ansarnet, an Al Qaeda-linked forum, are reporting on rumors that top Al Qaeda ideologue Yahya Al Libi was killed in a U.S. drone attack. The thread was locked by forum moderators for being entirely speculative. Rumors always run thick, however, so take this with more than the usual grains of salt.

UPDATE: A rather cranky and surprisingly swift rebuttal has been posted to Al Ansar:

Shykh Abu Yahya Al Libi Hafizaullah is alive and 100% ok with good health n eman the recent rumor spread by kuffar is just their stupidity insha'Allah they will get answer for it.

The posting was done by a member but endorsed by a moderator, who threatened to start banning anyone who spread "kuffar" lies on the forum.

The most important takeaway here: Who knew it was so easy to ring up Yahya Al Libi and check on his health? While there are a number of possible explanations for where and how this update originated, the fact that it came so quickly suggests that Al Libi is currently in a city in Pakistan (Peshawar?) and not out hiking in the mountains with Osama bin Laden. I don't think his iPhone gets reception out there.

SECOND UPDATE: The rumors are starting to take on more force and are now being reported by other CT experts (such as here and here). On the off chance it turns out to be true, remember you read it here first... And on the off chance it turns out to be untrue, well, you read that here first too... Never let it be said I don't cover all the bases.

Previous stories on Al Libi:

A Leader Who Could Revitalize Al Qaeda

Infidel Bug Spoils Speech

The New Al Qaeda Central

Other news on INTELWIRE:

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: 'Pakistan Five' Struck From The Mold

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: Five American Jihadists Arrested in Pakistan

INTELFILES: Hal Turner Court Records

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: David Coleman Headley

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: American Muslims Threatened Over Nidal Hasan

INTELWIRE WEBLOG: Convicting Khalid Shaikh Mohammed

AMERICAN JIHADISTS: A Key Failure In Understanding Nidal Hasan

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

New Yahya Al Libbi Video Coming Soon

A Web site used by al Qaeda-linked militants has posted a notice that a new video is forthcoming from Abu Yahya al-Libbi, a rising star in the ranks of al Qaeda. If you missed my analysis on him last week, check it out here. I expect to post details of the video when it becomes available.

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Weblog

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Yahya Al-Libbi: A Leader Who Could Revitalize Al Qaeda

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

Yahya al-Libbi may be the next Osama bin Laden.

In fact, he might be a better bin Laden than Osama ever was.

Al-Libbi is a top al Qaeda operative captured by the Pakistanis in 2002. He was transferred to U.S. custody and subsequently escaped from a U.S.-run prison in Bagram, Afghanistan in 2005.

His much-touted escape catapulted him to the top ranks of al Qaeda's visible leadership.

Al-Libbi has produced more videos than Ayman Al-Zawahiri over the last year. He looks increasingly impressive with each appearance.

His most recent release, this week, highlighted his strengths and may point to an elevated operational role within al Qaeda's "corporate" nexus.

The message was directed toward Saudi Muslims and contained a harsh criticism of the Kingdom's corruption and moral laxity.



While that refrain has been repeated like a drumbeat by jihadi propagandists for decades, several aspects of his recent media releases bear scrutiny.

Al-Libbi is an extremely charismatic speaker. He looks good on camera -- young, strong and handsome -- and his voice is strong and clear, with very distinct enunciation. He effortlessly conveys a sense of physical competence, and the success of his prison break speaks for itself -- every statement he makes as a free man is inherently a slap in the face to the United States.

There's no contest at all between al-Libbi and Zawahiri on the charisma front. It's like comparing Bill Clinton to Dick Cheney. What's more impressive is how al-Libbi stacks up against bin Laden.

While bin Laden is known for possessing powerful charisma in person, he's a soft-spoken orator who mumbles. His camera presence has always been frail, even in his younger days, and his military experience is limited (though it has taken on legendary qualities).



Al-Libbi scores better than bin Laden for content as well as delivery. Bin Laden is a wonk for the details of Islamic history and jurisprudence. While his intelligence is evident during such dissertations, his religious scholarship has never been highly regarded. Furthermore, his speeches tend to be rooted in the minutiae of the past.

It's not that bin Laden doesn't focus on current affairs and modern problems. Rather it's a question of balance and pacing. His pronouncements deliberately evoke antiquity. Today's grievances are grounded in a long, long history. They emanate from that history and are, in turn, woven into it.

This backward-looking tendency can resonate with Arab audiences, who share bin Laden's long view on history. But these days, Al Qaeda is becoming more and more international -- its recruit base spans Europe and the Americas and is particularly strong in Al-Libbi's home base of North Africa.

Those audiences may be significantly more receptive to Al-Libbi's pragmatic here-and-now orientation. His most recent message on Saudi Arabia provides an excellent case in point.

Although al-Libbi references history and the scholars of Islam, the message continually returns to a focus on recent events -- Saudi and Arab cooperation with the United States, the corruption of regimes that claim to be Muslim and the encroachment of U.S. influence in the Arabian peninsula.

The speech is interspersed with accounts of torture, mistreatment and blasphemy from Arab regimes, and what he characterizes as the enslavement of Arab and Muslim governments to the wishes of the U.S. and its allies. By keeping it simple and relevant, al-Libbi also comes across as a more credible Islamic scholar than bin Laden.

Al-Libbi uses extremely specific anecdotes related to recent events, such as April's mass arrest of Saudi militants, highlighting the fact that he is current and involved in the struggle, out among the mujahideen -- providing a sharp contrast to the leadership-in-exile practiced by bin Laden and Zawahiri. Images distributed on extremist Web sites even show al-Libbi conducting military training before a class of Libyan jihadists.



The content of al-Libbi's messages also reflect the diverse interests of his growing international audience. He has spoken and written in depth on topics ranging from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and even the plight of children with AIDS in Libya.

Overall, al-Libbi comes across as someone living in the present, whose viewpoint is informed by the past. In contrast, bin Laden comes across as someone who is living in the past and seeks to turn back the clock. That's intentional, and it's part of his appeal for a certain segment of the fundamentalist audience.

But it's not necessarily as attractive to new recruits, many of whom are becoming radicalized in response to relatively recent U.S. policies in the Middle East. Al-Libbi is better positioned to draw moderate and modern Muslims into the nexus of al Qaeda sympathizers and supporters.

It's noteworthy that this week's message, released by al Qaeda's al-Sahab media production arm, included English subtitles even though its message seems tailored to a Saudi audience.

In the past, messages from Zawahiri which were aimed at mainly Arab audiences have been delivered without subtitles. The extra effort reflects al-Libbi's strength in speaking to the concerns of jihadis around the world.

Al-Libbi has already been connected to significant terrorist and military attacks within Afghanistan, including a daring attempt to assassinate Vice President Dick Cheney at the very same air base where al-Libbi was once imprisoned.

He has yet to score a spectacular, mass-casualty terrorist attack outside of Afghanistan, but it's only a matter of time. Saudi Arabia, the country targeted in his latest message, could be in his sights. A map of Saudi Arabia was displayed throughout the message, reminiscent of past videos by bin Laden which were keyed to specific attacks.

Should al-Libbi be able to claim a devastating attack outside Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden may find himself officially replaced. And the United States may find itself fighting an enemy with a lot more upside potential.

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Al-Libi, Analysis, INTELWIRE-Exclusive

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink