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News, documents and analysis on violent extremismSunday, May 2, 2010
First Thoughts on Times Square BombUPDATE 12:13 p.m. EST: The Long War Journal is reporting that the Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for the failed attack in Times Square last night. My immediate reaction to this can be found here. END UPDATEStory here. Or you can watch CNN live for some truly worthless speculation. My first thoughts (aka worthless speculation): If the descriptions of the bomb design are accurate, this certainly sounds like an amateur effort. It was made up of fireworks, a relatively small amount of gasoline and propane as well as some fairly random-sounding components. The vehicle was left running with its hazard lights on, which also smacks of amateurism. It was parked on a street corner rather than targeting a building from a parking garage. It was an SUV (with windows) rather than a van or a truck (which not only hold more explosives but are more difficult to peer into). There were apparently no shrapnel generators, which a pro (or someone getting professional help online) would have used in a device targeting a crowd rather than a building and which can be easily improvised by someone with even a rudimentary knowledge of bomb-making. However, there was an ammo box in the vehicle, which hasn't been opened as of this writing and could have contained such components. The amateur design doesn't preclude the involvement of AQ or another organized component, but it does reduce the odds. Even a casual jihadist or a typical domestic anti-government extremist would be able to build a better bomb. If an amateur effort, the suspects would include a petty criminal or criminals or a depressed or mentally ill person lashing out in a disorganized and relatively spontaneous manner. This person could still be motivated by classically terrorist ideology, such as jihadism or white supremacy, but there are such robust communities in the U.S. for both of these ideologies, it's difficult to see how one could have an interest in one of those subjects and still put together such an amateurish bomb. If you look at the Underwear Bomber, for instance, his device was sophisticated even if his execution was not. PETN is not a amateur's tool. Fireworks and gasoline are another story. I'm available to talk to journalists on this subject today on telephone, Skype or at Boston-area studios. Contact me if you need something. UPDATE 11 a.m. EDT: Authorities have found a VIN number on the vehicle, which will help them trace its ownership. Interestingly, the primary VIN number had been obscured in some way, which is a much more professional-type of action than the bomb would suggest. If confirmed, this most likely means the car was bought from a chop shop, although it could indicate that the bomber was a mechanic or worked some other sort of profession relating to cars. However, a mechanic would have built a better bomb. Although the bomb is pretty low-end, as discussed above, a few simple tweaks could have made it work better, and it would still have provided a pretty big bang even if it wouldn't have been as lethal as a professional-grade device. Labels: American-Jihadists, Faisal-Shahzad, Weblog Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.
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BOOKS"...smart, granular analysis..."ISIS: The State of TerrorMore on ISIS: The State of Terror "...a timely warning...""At a time when some politicians and pundits blur the line between Islam and terrorism, Berger, who knows this subject far better than the demagogues, sharply cautions against vilifying Muslim Americans. ... It is a timely warning from an expert who has not lost his perspective." -- New York Times More on Jihad Joe ABOUT![]() RECENTNewest posts!Recently on Intelwire... Awlaki: Finally One of the Cool Kids Abu Yahya Al-Libi: All Americans Must Be Killed Ev... Counter-counter-counter-terrorism: The Positive Po... CAIR Says Revolution Muslim A 'Setup' To Smear Mus... Napolitano Has Got To Go Oklahoma City Bombing: Still Digging More Threats Against South Park, This Time With Th... Exclusive: State Department Cables on Benazir Bhut... American Jihadists 'Warn' South Park Creators Of D... EXCLUSIVESNew York Pipe Bomb Suspect Linked to Revolution Muslim The Utility of Lone Wolves Interview with Online Jihadist Abu Suleiman Al Nasser A Way Forward for CVE: The Five Ds How Terrorists Use The Internet: Just Like You PATCON: The FBI's Secret War on the Militia Movement Interview About Jihad With Controversial Cleric Bilal Philips Forgeries on the Jihadist Forums U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki State Department Secretly Met With Followers of Blind Sheikh State Department Put 'Political Pressure' On FBI To Deport Brother-in-Law Of Osama Bin Laden In 1995 FBI Records Reveal Details Of Nixon-Era Racial Profiling Program Targeting Arabs Gaza Flotilla Official Was Foreign Fighter in Bosnia War U.S. Had 'High Confidence' Of UBL Attack In June 2001 Behind the Handshake: The Rumsfeld-Saddam Meeting |