Measuring Awlaki's Influence

Joshua Foust commented today on Jihadology about this recent piece in Foreign Policy about Anwar Awlaki. You should read them first, although you'll probably get the gist if you plunge right in.

Foust raises a number of good points in his post, which questions the first article's thesis that Awlaki is "the most persuasive supporter of jihad for Muslims in the West," claiming it is impossible to show evidence of ideology's role in jihadism. Here's what I think is the key statement in Foust's commentary:

We react to our environment, we respond to peer pressures, to community norms and signals, to physical and social constraints on behavior, and so on. Ideology can, potentially, be one of those contributing factors — as a means of signaling and of establishing justification for certain behaviors. But to say that ideology causes behavior is difficult if not impossible to prove — not only can we never get inside someone’s head to say, conclusively, why they did something, but we know, from neuroscience, that people cannot explain their own behavior consistently. And still, you’re left with the lingering question of why this specific person reacted against ideology while the thousands of others who were exposed to it did not.

At best, ideology is a woefully incomplete explanation for why terrorists chose to commit terror. But to argue that it is so important requires a standard of evidence that is, in practical terms, impossible to achieve.

Persuasion, especially as an absolute, is not clearly quantifiable. People are extremely complicated and most bring pre-existing conditions to their decisions, as Foust points out here and as I explore in (shameless plug alert) my forthcoming book on American jihadists.

But I don't think we have to throw up our hands and surrender on the question of trying to understand or prioritize the role of ideology, or at least of ideologues, in shaping the behavior of jihadists (among other demographics).

"Influence" might be the better word. We see evidence of influence when we see that a person has a hard drive or iPod full of Awlaki lectures. That doesn't mean Awlaki is the sole reason for that person's behavior but it does mean that person has been consuming Awlaki's content.

If influence is too fuzzy, then we can further reduce the question to presence -- does Awlaki have a presence in the person's media consumption?

When you frame the question this way (and it's more than a semantic distinction), there is plenty of hard evidence to look at.

For American jihadists specifically, Western jihadists more generally, and now Arabic-speaking jihadists, Awlaki has an overwhelming presence and/or influence, as documented by the repeated appearance of his material on the hard drives of people arrested for terrorism offenses, the posting of his material on jihadist Web forums and its prominence, and the posting and re-posting and analysis of his material on pro-jihad blogs.

Terrorism suspects who kept copies of Awlaki's work lying around include Zach Chesser, Faisal Shahzad, "Jihad Jane" and her comrades in arms, Roshonara Choudhry, the Fort Dix Six, Samir Khan, Emerson Begolly, Paul and Nadia Rockwood, and many, many more. Some, such as underwear bomber Umar Abdulmutallab, Chesser and Choudhry, specifically said Awlaki influenced them. Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan reached out to Awlaki asking fo advice about the morality of his actions.

Ideologically, I think many would agree that Awlaki is not a trailblazer. He hasn't introduced anything particularly new or sophisticated to the genre. Most of his jihad-oriented work consists of condensing, translating and explaining the work of others, but also in making older works relevant to modern-day consumers.

There is a robust (and much-needed) debate in the terrorism studies community about exactly how important Awlaki is and why. Most observers would agree that Awlaki benefited greatly from inflated statements about his importance in 2009 and 2010, and he has clearly become more important in the last year because of U.S. government attention -- in the form of the "kill order" issued by the Obama administration. But none of that negates Awlaki's presence among jihadists.

Ultimately, Awlaki clearly commands a significant audience among jihadists, and it's hard to argue that he doesn't wield significant influence with this audience. Awlaki is not always be the trigger-man, as Foust might put it, but he clearly did serve in something like that role for Abdulmutallab and Hasan.

If virtually every Western jihadist is listening to Awlaki's lectures obsessively, then something significant is going on. Call it influence, persuasion or presence, but Awlaki is an increasingly important part of the jihadist movement, and there's plenty of evidence to support that notion.

AFTERTHOUGHT: With all the evidence we do have about Awlaki's presence, what we lack is a basis for comparison. We know Awlaki is on the hard drives of terrorists because the Justice Department tells us so. What they don't tell us (consistently) is what else those hard drives contain. Adam Gadahn videos? Abdullah El Faisal audios? Abu Mansour Al Amrikee? Omar Bakree Muhammad?

What about Yousef Qaradawi? Don't forget Awlaki's corpus of work is dominated by non-jihadist material which would be of interest to converts. Which lectures are they finding on these computers?

One would hope that the continual identification of Awlaki is due to the volume, content and frequency of his work appearing on drives, but certainly it's possible that a comparative study would show us something surprising. Hey, FBI, I'd sure be interested in seeing something like that!

Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihad-Jane, Jihad-Joe, Nidal-Malik-Hasan, Umar-Farouk-Abdulmutallab, Zach-Chesser

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

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A Look Into The Troubled Mind Of Jihadist Emerson Begolly

Prosecutors this week filed a raft of documents to support the detention of Emerson Begolly, a Western Pennsylvania jihadist arrested January 4. Begolly bit two FBI agents who were arresting him, drawing blood. The biting was a diversion as he attempted to draw a loaded 9-millimeter concealed on his person.

Exhibits in support of detention of Emerson Begolly (PDF)

Begolly, who used the online handle "Abu Nancy" (a reference to his "imaginary daughter," Nancy), disclosed a lot of interesting information about himself in chats with an online associate. They discussed "lone wolf" attacks such as loading a car with propane tanks and crashing it into a wall. His chat partner claimed to be stockpiling weapons and supplies for a "special project." A YouTube user with the same handle as the other person subscribes to a number of Islamic and jihadist-oriented channels.

Another of Begolly's chat partners claimed to have been in communication with Colleen Larose, aka Jihad Jane, who was indicted for taking part in a plot to kill Dutch cartoonist Lars Vilks for depicting the Prophet Mohammed.

Like many would-be jihadists, Begolly had a fetishized view of women, relating at one point a dream in which he saw one of the "houri" who await Islamic martyrs in heaven. "She said she will marry me if I am shaheed (a martyr)," Begolly wrote.

While he was having these dreams, "Abu Nancy" wrote, he was sleeping with a loaded AK-47 next to his bed. He told his online friend that when "they" found his martyred corpse, it would have a "smile a mile wide" and "a bulge in my pants."

His chat partner speculated that Adam Gadahn, Anwar Awlaki and Osama bin Laden "surely yearn" for the houris as much they did. (I'm sure he's right about one out of three.) The two then took part in an interesting conversation in which they tried to justify why the three Al Qaeda figureheads had not taken part in martyrdom operations themselves. The discussion (on page 23 of the PDF linked below) is fodder for those working on deradicalization and narrative-adjustment.

Another relevant comment in this vein: "If America were not at war with Islam, I would not hate it."

Begolly is also an interesting case study in the confluence of fringe right-wing thinking and radical Islam. He repeatedly states in chat that he hates Mexicans. In one transcript, he says his father is "presumably" a member of a militia that "thinks Obama wants to kill white people." Begolly said that if the FBI tried to arrest him he would "make Waco look like a tea party."

Begolly also discussed killing children in the name of jihad. "Please don't think I'm a psychopath," he wrote, "but would you object to a child or unarmed non-combatant [as a target]?" His chat partner felt there were causes which would justify killing children, such as the release of Muslim prisoners, suggesting that it would be acceptable to take hostages at a school and exchange the children for prisoners. "And I would not call you a psychopath for doing as you believe is right and proper."

For more about American jihadists, check out my new book, "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War In The Name Of Islam," the first comprehensive look at the phenomenon of American jihadists from the 1970s to the present. The book is scheduled to be released in April/May 2011. Pre-orders are available now. For information about review copies or for media interviews on American jihadists, contact me here.

Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, Colleen-LaRose, Emerson-Begolly, Jihad-Jane, Jihad-Joe

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Jihad Jane II: Jamie Paulin-Ramirez

Jihad Jane has a sister in arms. Her name is Jamie Paulin-Ramirez, and she appears to have been arrested as part of the investigation of the same plot to assassinate Muslim-offending cartoonist Lars Vilke.

After dressing in traditional headscarves, praying at a mosque in Denver and meeting with associates she had likely befriended online, Ms. Paulin-Ramirez — accompanied by her then 5-year-old son, Christian Carreon — had gone to live in Ireland in October, her mother, Christine Mott, said in an interview at her home here on Saturday. [...]

Both were recent converts to Islam and had become very active in online communities where they discussed their faith. Both Ms. LaRose with her blond hair and green eyes, and Ms. Paulin-Ramirez, blond and blue-eyed, had adopted traditional head covers.

Source: New York Times

UPDATE: CBS News says Paulin-Ramirez has been released. It will be interesting to see how THAT plays out...

Labels: Colleen-LaRose, Jamie-Paulin-Ramirez, Jihad-Jane

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Jihad Jane Is Talking

Wall Street Journal today confirms the hunch I posted Tuesday:

A person familiar with the matter said Ms. LaRose has been cooperating with authorities since her arrest. She helped prosecutors in their case against seven Muslims in Ireland accused of plotting to kill cartoonist Lars Vilks, this person said. Mr. Vilks's depictions of the Prophet Muhammad incited protests by Muslims. Law-enforcement officials said Ms. LaRose left the U.S. for Europe in August 2009, intending to train with jihadists and try to kill Mr. Vilks.

Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Colleen-LaRose, Jihad-Jane

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Jihad Jane: Colleen LaRose Indictment

Here are the court documents for female American jihadist Colleen Renee LaRose, aka Jihad Jane, aka Fatima LaRose. Click here to read some of LaRose's attitudes about the United States in her own words.

10/10/2009: Criminal complaint, Colleen LaRose

Indictment, Colleen LaRose

Highlights of the indictment:

Defendant COLLEEN R. LAROSE, a/k/a “Fatima LaRose,” a/k/a “JihadJane,” and others known and unknown to the Grand Jury, recruited men online to wage violent jihad in South Asia and Europe. [...]

On or about December 8, 2008, Unindicted Co-Conspirator (“CC”) #1, a resident of a South Asian country (whose full e-mail address is known to the Grand Jury), sent an electronic communication to defendant COLLEEN R. LAROSE, a/k/a “Fatima LaRose,” a/k/a “JihadJane,” stating CC #1’s desire to wage jihad and become a “shahed” (martyr). On or about December 9, 2008, defendant COLLEEN R. LAROSE, a/k/a “Fatima LaRose,” a/k/a “JihadJane,” sent an electronic communication to CC #1, replying that she also desires to become a martyr.[...]

On or about February 20, 2009, defendant COLLEEN R. LAROSE, a/k/a “Fatima LaRose,” a/k/a “JihadJane,” sent an electronic communication to CC #1, advising CC #1 that her physical appearance would allow her to “blend in with many people,” which “may be a way to achieve what is in my heart.”[...]

The problem here should be self-evident. Jihad Jane doesn't look to be the sharpest tack in the bag, but she doesn't have to be. Although we don't have an official national policy of racial profiling, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that a tiny blonde woman is going to attract a lower level of screening in an airport than a burly Pakistani male, nine times out of ten.

On the bright side (such as it is), given her background, profile and apparent capability, she is not someone who could easily execute a sophisticated attack on her own initiative, or even necessarily with extensive training. If you look at the major successful terrorist attacks in the United States, you will find that most of them involve at least one operative who is extremely intelligent and who has often received some kind of formal training in military or terrorist tactics.

Is Jihad Jane a threat of magnitude under her own power? Probably not. But she would have been a potent tool in the hands of someone like Ramzi Yousef or Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, and it's a very good thing she has been taken off the playing field.

Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Colleen-LaRose, INTELFILES, Jihad-Jane

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Jihad Jane's Manifesto

This passage was taken from an online posting by Jihad Jane, aka Colleen LaRose, the Pennsylvania woman indicted this week:

Some ask us why we dont condemn the Mujaahideen. We say to them:

We will never condemn them in order to please your hearts. We speak what is good and leave that which is evil. The honor belongs to Allah, His Messenger, and the Believers and not the disbelievers.If what the Mujaahideen are doing is something not permissible under Islaamic Law, then we will stay quiet and pray to Allah for guidance (for them).

Never will we condemn them to make you happy because they are still better than the disbelievers due to their belief in Allah and His Messenger.And all the praises and thanks belong to Allah. We never have to find ourselves making supplication to Allah to guide them from their errors because they do things in accordance to the Shariah.

It is only the media that distorts their image, throws accusations upon them, and purposely lies to the public about their affairs labeling them as terrorists, fundamentalists, radicals and so on.

It is hypocritical of the media, generally speaking, to apply such labels to the Mujaahideen but fail to apply an iota of it to the American Government; she bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki and killed countless of civilians, yet people are too cowardly to call her a terrorist state. People should be remembering this extreme terrorist action for centuries upon centuries!!!

Later, she cites the work of Aburrahman Al Faqir, a jihadist thinker best known for his work online hanging around the Al Hesbah forum, an Al Qaeda-linked message board known for its relatively high proportion of jihad talkers who become jihad doers.

Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Colleen-LaRose, Jihad-Jane

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Pennsyvlania Woman Charged With Recruiting For Jihad

This one is a doozy...

David Kris, Assistant Attorney General for National Security, and Michael L. Levy, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, together with Janice K. Fedarcyk, Special Agent-in-Charge of the FBI in Philadelphia, today announced the unsealing of an indictment charging Colleen R. LaRose, aka "Fatima LaRose," aka "Jihad Jane," with conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists, conspiracy to kill in a foreign country, making false statements to a government official and attempted identity theft.

It's an interesting perhaps-coincidence that a Pennsylvania jihadist recruiter should be indicted immediately after a Pennsylvania jihadist was arrested in Pakistan. Pakistani news outlets reported that the jihadist was arrested based on U.S. intelligence leads.

So has Jihad Jane been talking? There's good reason to think so.

LaRose was actually rolled up with a sealed criminal complaint pertaining to her abuse of a U.S. passport back in October. An arrest warrant was executed on October 29, 2009. A series of sealed documents were then filed with the court culminating in an arrest warrant, including several requests to postpone indictment.

Labels: Abu-Yahya-Mujahdeen-al-Adam, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Colleen-LaRose, Jihad-Jane

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink