Is Al Qaeda coming back to NY?

Al Qaeda’s Internet forums have not been having a good month. The two forums officially designated for distributing the terrorist group’s propaganda have been offline for days, leaving online jihad aficionados with a lot of free time on their hands.

One of those “jihobbyists” posted a picture of New York City with the phrase “Al Qaeda: Coming Soon Again in New York” to the Ansar Al-Mujahideen Arabic forum, which is where terrorist trolls have been hanging out while their elite forums are offline.

The image is apparently a stock photograph, which can be found on at least 45 Web sites, sans the text, according to a TinEye search. The NYPD is investigating, as reported with a certain amount of hyperventilation by the Daily News.

It’s not the first time that Al Qaeda’s online images have provoked alarm. Inspire Magazine, brainchild of the late American jihadist Anwar Awlaki, often featured pictures of U.S. landmarks, including the Capitol. Analysts pounced on the images as possible warnings of an imminent terrorist attack, but the threats were never fulfilled.

The online posting at Ansar, while understandably upsetting, has even less credibility as a threat than the Inspire images. Although a lone jihadist or Al Qaeda proper could certainly choose to advertise their intentions in this manner, it is unprecedented for the terrorist organization or any of its online adherents to make so specific a threat.

I recently asked a number of government intelligence analysts whether any of the hundreds of threats and wishful plots they had tracked on jihadist forums had ever been realized in an actual terrorist attack. The answer was stark. No plot begun on the forums had ever culminated in a successful attack, and only one person was willing to cite one plot that became operational (unsuccessfully).

In 2011, I interviewed one of the most prolific online provocateurs, known by his username Abu Suleiman Al Nasser. Abu Suleiman has been the subject of many alerts transmitted by various terror-watchers over the last couple of years because he’s a jihadist idea machine, constantly proposing tactics and attacks. None of them, thus far, have come to fruition.

“I am not a leader in Al Qaeda and do not speak for them,” he explained, “but I consider myself a member of Al Qaeda and the new generation of jihadists.” As part of his duties, Abu Suleiman posted countless ideas, warnings and calls for attacks, but he explained that this was part of a process of giving the West fair warning and not so much the substantial product of his criminal mastermind.

There’s a first time for everything, but volumes of venom are spewed on the forums every day. Most of them will never amount to anything. The challenge for counterterrorism professionals is figuring out where the needles lie in a very large haystack.

Update: More on the origins of the image here from Rusty Shackleford, and a pretty much similar comment to mine here from Daveed Gartenstein-Ross.

Update 2: I and my friend Aaron Zelin, of the excellent Jihadology site, are quoted in this New York Times story on the image.

Also, if we're going to start worrying about the threats contained in jihadi artwork, may I suggest that Mujazilla should be our greatest concern.

 ------

Check out J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale everywhere.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Internet, Jihadist-Forums

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

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The Value Of Exposing Collaborators

Daniel Maldanado, an American convert to Islam who went to fight alongside Islamists in Somalia, was once a big hit on the jihadi Internet forums. Arrested in 2007, he wrote craven, apologetic letters to the judge considering his sentence even as he wrote grandiose accounts of his jihad experiences to correspondents on the forums. One such letter described his grand adventures on the lam in the African wild with a group of fellow fighters:

For two weeks we did not eat at all except for one time at the very beginning of our wanderings. One day we came out to a Savannah area; it looked like something out of Lion King! We were careful, as helicopters were still in the sky and we were obviously being hunted by them. We would stay along the edge of the jungle area until we felt it was safe to actually go out into the long-grassed Savanna.

Suddenly one of the brothers caught a baby gazelle that seemed to just stand there, waiting for us. A brother took out a simple razor from his pocket. He pointed the animal towards the Qibla (direction towards Makkah) and we slaughtered it according to the noble shareeah (Islamic Law).

This missive became rather popular online, and Maldonado was seen as someone who had been living the dream. Less publicized were his court letters which laid out more bluntly the unpleasantness of his experience, including feeling awkward about being the only white guy in his group and general ineptitude.

Read Maldonado's letters to the court

The court letters didn't get much attention from jihobbyists at the time, but Maldonado is now getting plenty of negative attention from his former friends, thanks to his testimony this week implicating his former friend and fellow Boston-area jihadist Tarek Mehanna.

The former hero is now decidedly the goat. A thread on the hardcore Islamic Awakening forum concerning Maldonad's testimony sprouted 62 posts in just about one day (it was spun off by moderators from a thread on the Mehanna trial). A sampling of the responses:

"Make sure when you see [your children after an early release for cooperating] you sit them in your lap and tell them that this time together is thanks to lies and stabbing a Muslim in the back."

"I read an interview of Maldonado's earlier and in it he mentions his wife [who died of malaria in Africa] extensively. Perhaps one of the reasons Allah took his wife so early was so she could be spared of what her husband has become."

"Didn't Daniel M. know when setting off to a war zone, that he might be imprisoned and not see his children or wife again?! If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen, he should have gone to work in a kindergarten instead of somalia. I think the children excuse is just that, an excuse, and the guy just wants to get out even by the cost of our brother Tarek's freedom."

"This is much more evil for Muslims than benefit. Think about it, this gives more of a chance for outspoken Muslims to go to jail. This also destroys the fabric of society in the Muslim community because everyone is back stabbing each other so raising your children in this type of environment wont be beneficial. As well this will raise children to think it is okay to back stab Muslims."

"Daniel wasn't even tortured, conditions even in supermax are bearable (but may Allah protect all Muslims from such trials), so I find his excuses laughable, if it were not so sad."

"we may understand why they betrayed, but that is no excuse for betrayal. i cant see one example where we honor a betrayer because "he chose the lesser of two evils" with this type of thinking, surely the mujahideen and any soldier outfit would fall apart at the seams."

There were also those who defended Maldonado, somewhat tepidly, and many who suggested they should not be the judges. Many sharp words, accusations and condemnations were exchanged. In short, it was exactly the kind of thing that ordinary people and counterterrorism officials would like to see on these forums -- fitna, dissent and division.

U.S. officials should make cooperators and collaborators more visible. Since 9/11, many a convicted jihadist has fulfilled the conditions of a plea in total secrecy, never emerging to testify in court, sometimes even being released from prison early without anyone ever knowing what sort of cooperation they provided.

Disclosing this cooperation has multiple positive effects. First, it creates the divisions seen above. Secondly, it discredits jihadist narratives. Maldonado's letter to the forums about his adventures in Somalia will not be so warmly received in the future. It reinforces an existing meme among would-be jihadists that you can't trust anyone, no matter how credible they look. And finally, it hedges against convicted terrorists who play a double game of cooperating and then recanting, whether in letters from prison or after their release. If Maldonado succeeds in getting an early release thanks to his testimony against Mehanna, he won't receive a warm reception among his radical former friends.

For more about American jihadists, check out J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale everywhere.

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Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, CVE, Daniel-Maldonado, Jihadist-Forums, Tarek-Mehanna

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

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Unedited Abu Suleiman Interview

For more about online jihadists, check out J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale everywhere.

Labels: Abu-Suleiman-al-Nasser, Internet, Jihadist-Forums

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

An Interview with Online Jihadist Abu Suleiman Al Nasser

Labels: Abu-Musab-Al-Suri, Abu-Suleiman-al-Nasser, Internet, Jihadist-Forums, Leaderless-Jihad

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

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Hyping The Terrorist Internet: The "You Name It" Problem

As most readers know, I have a healthy respect for the dangers of terrorist use of the Internet. But at the same time, I think U.S. media and policymakers tend to oversell the impact and uniqueness of how Al Qaeda and its admirers and adherents use the Web.

While reading Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America's Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda it occurred to me that this is the "You Name It" Problem.

"General Abizaid was the Centcom commander and he essentially felt like we were losing daily, not just the broader battle of ideas, but we were losing the war in Iraq and Afghanistan because the way the terrorists dominate in either putting out beheadings or you just name it," said a counterterrorism official involved in the discussions.

A paragraph or two later, Abaizaid is quoted directly:

Yet when you looked at the enemy, the enemy was moving in the cyberspace world in a way that allowed them to recruit, train, organize, equip, proselytize, educate -- you name it! -- conduct intelligence operations.

"Recruit, train, organize, equip, proselytize, educate -- you name it! -- conduct intelligence operations" is actually just "recruit, train, equip and conduct intelligence operations" when you remove redundancies. Serious, yes, but a shorter list.

Meanwhile, the phrase "you name it" is designed to invoke all manner of mysterious goings-on that we are encouraged not to actually name, so that they can remain mysterious.

The vast majority of work and activity taking place on extremist forums is the same activity that extremist networks engage in offline. The Internet is a magnifier and accelerator, as it is in other aspects of life, but it has not, for the most part, fundamentally changed the work of extremism.

Some things are easier, like exposing people to various sorts of training manuals in dangerous techniques. Other things are harder, like ensuring that recruits are actually competent to perform dangerous techniques. Inspire magazine is a terrorist magazine just like dozens of its predecessors. It's not something fundamentally new, it's just being distributed more efficiently and at lower cost.

We need to be concerned about the ways that Internet use expands the reach and speed of terrorist organizations, but we also need to stay grounded, understand the basics and describe them in clear and concrete ways.

During a recent conversation about the Internet as a "driver" of radical activities, I pointed out that terrorists used printed newsletters and magazines before there was an Internet. Yet no one talks about the role of paper in driving extremist activities.

The Internet is an important tool, but it's just a tool. We should be talking about WHAT extremists are doing online, rather than marveling at the fact they are doing it ONLINE.

For more about Internet radicalization, check out J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale everywhere.

Labels: CVE, Domestic-Extremism, Internet, Jihadist-Forums, Radicalization

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Internet Provides Terrorists With Tools -- Just Like Everyone Else

Last week, I attended a National Counterterrorism Center conference on "The Changing Face of Al Qa'ida." I was honored to take part in a panel on Internet radicalization with some great thinkers in this space, Will McCants and Daveed Gartentstein-Ross, as well as Scott Carpenter, head of Google Ideas, who made a persuasive case for that project, although I continue to have some reservations and look forward to further conversations. What follows is an abridged and edited version of my talk.

Terrorists use the Internet in many of the same ways that everyone else uses it – to communicate, collaborate and achieve critical mass.

Jihadists in the U.S. began using email to distribute propaganda as soon as it became available. They replaced paper newsletters such as Al Hussam, published out of Boston, with e-mailed newsletters like the Islam Report, by Kifah Jayyousi with the American Islamic Group in Florida. Al Hussam later went online as well both in email and Web page form. These were just practical decisions. It cost about $1,000 a month to publish Al Hussam on paper. It cost virtually nothing to email Islam Report.

Jihadis switched to digital video fairly early as well, for similar reasons. It was much cheaper and easier to distribute files on video than on videotape. Prior to 9/11 most of these initiatives were extensions of the earlier formats – basically the same newsletter or video in digital form.

The rise of the Web and social media have made it possible for people with all sorts of fringe interests to find community where they never could before, whether it's fans of low-rated TV shows, people with unusual sexual fetishes or people who are fascinated by jihad.

Since 9/11, use of the Interent in general and by jihadists specifically has increasingly been about relationships. Many or even most of the relationships people institute online will remain online forever. But some people will make connections that lead to real-life interactions.

The jihadist Web is of greatest concern to us when relationships established online become relationships in the real world with real-world consequences. There is a tremendous amount of radical activity online. Very little of that activity will translate into real-world threats. But the volume of activity gives us a great (albeit imperfect) view on the temperature and interests of the movement.

The Internet is also seen, correctly, as an incubator for incipient radicalism and a transmission channel for jihadist and Al Qaeda propaganda. These are important factors, but not as important as the relationships. Relationships forged online have led to attempted terrorist attacks and violent radical activity in a number of cases (including Zach Chesser, "Jihad Jane" Colleen LaRose and Faisal Shahzad).

In contrast, despite a constant flow of specific threats generated on the forums, there is not a single case known to the open-source world where a scheme developed on the forum evolved into an operational success. It is extraordinarily rare for such conversations to become operational at all, even as failures.

One area of obvious concern is Al Qaeda's Inspire magazine, which urges American Muslims to take up arms at home and carry out attacks under the concept known as "individual jihad." This message has been reinforced by messages from American Al Qaeda member Adam Gadahn.

With some notable exceptions, the individual jihad has mostly resulted in embarrassing failures. Recent events in Norway may serve to spur additional efforts on this front, as Anders Breivik has now demonstrated that a single person can successfully mount a spectacular terrorist attack.

Although Inspire has been touted as a new initiative by Al Qaeda, it is in reality an old-style jihadist propaganda magazine, albeit with a few new twists. Most notable is the addition of direct instructions on how to carry out terrorist attacks, which have not traditionally been combined with propaganda pieces.

Last week we saw the first case of someone directly following the instructions in Inspire, former U.S. soldier Nasser Abdo. He won't be the last. It's important to continue monitoring the continued evolution of Inspire, while avoiding hyperbolic comments about its alleged power (which Inspire's editors routinely republish).

We're seeing social media increasingly used by jihadists, but a similar dynamic applies. Social media is not necessarily a source of radicalization but a way to make connections and build toward offline relationships.

For instance, Khalid Abdul Latif, who was plotting an attack on a military installation in Seattle, uploaded propaganda videos to YouTube expounding on his views. There is no evidence his videos managed to radicalize anyone, although they provided a significant service to prosecutors. Only a handful of people even saw his videos prior to his arrest.

Fan pages centered around jihadist/terrorist groups on Facebook have, to some extent, succeeded in establishing a wider reach, but these pages also expose users to potential negative action in a more substantial way than the forums.

For practical purposes, we should be thinking about violent radicalization as a problem set that has to do more to do with violence and less to do with talk, beliefs and attitudes. We can't control or regulate how people think. We can interdict them when they start to move toward violent action.

For more about American jihadists, including a chapter devoted to their use of the Internet, check out J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale everywhere.

Labels: Jihadist-Forums, Radicalization, Social-Media

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

The Jihadist Who Wasn't

When the FBI arrested Joseph Brice of Clarkston, Wash., on explosives charges last month, it seemed like a familiar story. An American citizen drawn into jihadist talk online, a reader of Al Qaeda's English language magazine "Inspire," seeking to carry out acts of terrorism on U.S. soil.

But it wasn't quite so simple. Investigators now believe that Brice was not inspired by Inspire. In fact, it appears he isn't a Muslim at all.

When the FBI interviewed Brice after his arrest, "he denied being a Muslim and said that he didn't go to a mosque," said David Gomez, Assistant Special Agent-in-Charge for Counterterrorism at the Seattle Office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Although Brice represented himself as a Muslim with extremist beliefs online, the approach was designed to find an audience for his explosives expertise.

Brice, 20, first came to the attention of authorities in April 2010, when a homemade bomb he had designed exploded prematurely, resulting in severe injuries to his legs. The device was sophisticated in design, but a flaw in the detonator caused it to go off before Brice could reach a safe distance.

Brice wasn't charged at the time. For most people, such an experience might lead to second thoughts about bombmaking as a hobby. Brice got back on the horse and allegedly began discussing bombs online.

Investigators rate his bomb-making skills as extremely high, despite the accident. (Even legendary explosives genious Ramzi Yousef nearly blinded himself during a misfire.)

At one point, Brice frequented white supremacist Web sites, according to Gomerz. But by late 2010, he was posting videos on YouTube under the name StrengthofAllah, along with comments that appeared to show an orientation toward anti-Semitism and a radical interpretation of Islam.

Brice progressed to exploring jihadist forums, where he began to reach out to other users. In some of those conversations, Brice claimed he had converted to Islam after his injury.

Eventually, he offered his explosives expertise to someone he believed was associated with an Islamic terrorist movement. In reality, he was talking to an undercover FBI agent.

After the death of Osama bin Laden, Brice's overtures were deemed too dangerous to continue, and he was arrested May 9 on charges related to the IED that nearly cost him his legs. This week, federal prosecutors added a charge of material support for terrorism, based on his offer of assistance to the undercover agent. The charge does not require contact with a named terrorist organization.

From a law enforcement perspective, Brice's actual religion was not an issue, "because it's immaterial to the filing of the charges," Gomez said. "The facts are the facts, he did what he did. Motivation doesn't really come into play. It's not a crime in which we have to show motive."

Gomez, who worked for five years as an FBI profiler, believes Brice fits the mold of a serial bomber.

"He's not thinking about committing a crime. He's thinking this is what really gets me excited, this is what really stimulates me," Gomez said.

Nevertheless, the case agent who interviewed Brice said he did show signs of anti-Semitic and anti-government beliefs, although no evidence has emerged that would link him to a domestic terrorist network.

Brice's online foray into the world of Muslim extremism likely came in pursuit of an audience for his work, Gomez said, as well as the possibility of financial gain (at one point he discussed using explosives in a bank robbery with an online associate).

"The Internet now is unique," Gomez said. "It allows people to assume multiple identities, to get up on board and to do any number of criminal activities, from child sexual exploitation to presenting yourself as a bomb-making expert and wanting to sell your expertise. ... You can be anything you want to be sitting in front of a computer screen."

Overlap among diverse extremist movements is nothing new, but such links have historically been weak and infrequent, and based on common goals rather than the pretense of common interests.

With the advent of online forums, extremists have an unprecedented ability to find like-minded people and cluster in exclusive communities. But a counterweight to such community exclusivity is the universality of information, particularly expertise in explosives and other violent tactics.

Al Qaeda and its affiliated movements are especially aggressive about pushing out non-ideological tactical information, including English-language texts on improvised explosive techniques and detailed how-to videos. Brice also used AQAP's Inspire magazine to hone his impersonation of a jihadist terrorist.

Such forum shopping may be particularly relevant to the Pacific Northwest. Gomez and his fellow counterterrorism agents in Washington have been busy breaking a diverse assortment of domestic terrorism cases in recent months.

In January, a backpack bomb was found in Spokane on the route of a Martin Luther King Day parade. The FBI arrested Kevin Harpham, of Colville, Wash., a former member of the white supremacist National Alliance, although Gomez said Harpham is belived to have acted alone.

Earlier this month, Briana Waters pleaded guilty in Tacoma to arson and explosives charges in a 10-year-old case of eco-terrorism at the University of Washington, cutting a plea deal to cooperate in ongoing investigations of the Animal Liberation Front and Earth Liberation Front.

And on Thursday, FBI agents arrested two Muslim men in Seattle who are accused of planning a gun attack on a military enlistees' processing office.

Gomez said the Seattle area is also home to a significant anarchist movement, as well as both historical and modern white supremacist movements, such as the Northwest Migration, which envisions the Pacific Northwest as the site for a future white separatist homeland.

People in Washington and Seattle are "extremely tolerant of a number of divergent views," Gomez said. "People feel comfortable up here talking about all their radical politics," resulting in greater visibility and possibly creating an environment more conducive to action. While the terrorist networks observed in Seattle have branches all over the country, he said, they tend to operate more covertly in places like Baltimore or Washington.

For much more about the history of American jihadism and its current incarnation, check out J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale everywhere.

Jihad Joe was reviewed in the Sunday New York Times Book Review.

Journalists interested in discussing American jihadists and terrorists can contact Berger here.

For reviews and additional information about the book, click here.

Labels: American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Jihadist-Forums, Joseph-Brice, white-supremacists

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

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Forgeries On The Forums

Updated 1:40 p.m. ET

The system for distributing propaganda on jihadist Web forums has been remarkably robust for a long time now, but in the wake of Osama bin Laden's death, some cracks are beginning to show.

On June 9, a user on one of the more prominent forums posted a video purporting to be from Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media company announcing that Osama bin Laden's son, Hamza, had been selected to take over as emir of Al Qaeda.

The post was not formatted in manner customarily used by As-Sahab, and it included a banner graphic that did not match the usual format. The video itself was fairly unconvincing. It consisted of Arabic title cards and some previously released video of Hamza as a child, opening with a not-quite-right As-Sahab title sequence. In short, it was a pretty obvious fake.



I noted all of this, but didn't pay it much mind. The offending thread was deleted by forum administrators almost immediately, and that, it seemed, was that.

Except it wasn't. The thread kept popping up. On different forums, posted by different users. Each time, it was deleted by forum administrators, but still it kept coming back. A different video was posted on YouTube claiming that Hamza had been named emir.

All of this created confusion and paranoia on the forums, exacerbated by the fact that user accounts were apparently being hijacked to post the videos. Users from Shamikh, the top Al Qaeda-linked forum, would surface on Ansar, the No. 2 forum, complaining that they had been kicked off of Shamikh for posting unauthorized videos that they had no memory of posting.

The fun continued for some time, but finally tapered off toward the beginning of this week.

Then last night, a new apparent forgery appeared. This one was a purported video from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula titled "People of the Victorious Sect." This time, the post had a much more authentic look, formatted in the way official releases are usually formatted.



Users on the Hanein forum began complaining that the video file contained a virus. Once again, administrators rushed to delete the thread, which was cross-posted to several of the most visited forums as of this morning.

The video, obtained by Jihadology, looks to be a fake. Graphics for AQAP's Al-Malahem Media Foundation appear at the start of the video in AQAP's customary widescreen aspect ratio but letterboxed into a 4:3 file. The rest of the video is entirely in 4:3, unlike most of Al-Malahem's releases. Most, if not all, of the footage in the seven-minute clip is recycled from old As-Sahab videos.

The quality of the forgery generally resembles the quality of the Hamza forgery (i.e. sloppy), but this one is slightly improved. I'm showing the player in the screencaps below so you can see the issue with the aspect ratio.



Within minutes of my posting an earlier version of this story, a message appeared on the Al Jahad forum purporting to be from the Al Qaeda-linked distributor Al Fajr Media Center, which is responsible for posting Al Qaeda communiques to the forums. The message mentions both of the above examples and warns users of viruses and other potential threats from following the forgeries.

Of course, the Al Fajr message itself may very well be forged. It only appeared on Jahad and not on any of the other related forums to which I have access. That is, in itself unusual, and there were other irregular features to the post. If that message is also a forgery, this whole thing is approaching conspiracy-paranoia genius.

The one thing that is very clear from all this is that someone is targeting the forums. I don't know if it's an intelligence service or private hackers, and I don't know if the same party is responsible for both of the forgeries, although I have my suspicions on all of these counts.

What I do know is that jihadist forum users are receiving a couple of very clear messages, which they haven't heard before -- "You are not safe here" and "you can't trust your online friends."

There have been a handful of fakes and forgeries in the past, but the scale of this is very interesting and it's targeting a very vulnerable spot in the online jihadist architecture. It'll be very interesting to see how this plays out.

For more about the forums, check out buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

A couple of quick notes:

If you haven't taken the "What is Al Qaeda?" survey, I urge you to check it out. You may find it a bit complicated. That's OK. The point is to figure out exactly what we mean when we're talking about al Qaeda, and I think that's an important issue. We need more responses.

I had an article at Foreign Policy this week on how the ascension of Ayman Al-Zawahiri to Al Qaeda's throne affects his American lap-dog, Adam Gadahn. Check it out, along with the other really excellent contributions to FP's Zawahiri Era roundtable.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Ayman Al Zawahiri Releases Video Eulogy For Osama bin Laden

Al Qaeda's former deputy leader, Ayman Al Zawahiri, issued a statement on the death of Osama bin Laden, praising his life but not explicitly addressing the question of who would succeed him as emir of Al Qaeda.

The video, in Arabic with no subtitles, was posted to jihadist forums this morning. According to Der Spiegel (German), Zawahiri called for support to Al Qaeda in Yemen and a jihad against the Syrian regime, as well as making vague threats of revenge.

Update: AP has a preliminary story on the video in English here.

Update 2: ABC seems to think Zawahiri came off as large and in charge of Al Qaeda in the video. The consensus on the forums and among the Twitterfolk I follow seems to be that this was not an inaugural address.

Zawahiri criticized the burial of bin Laden at sea, and urged Pakistanis to follow the Arab Spring and rise up against the government. This is not the first time we've heard him say that, although the Arab Spring frame of reference is now.

The video lasts just under half an hour. Production on the video was completed May 30, nine days before it was released. Zawahiri's speech was likely recorded earlier than that. The video was recorded in front of a plain backdrop, and Zawahiri wore a clip-on microphone.

A higher-quality screencap is here for use by media outlets. Mandatory credit to Intelwire when using the image.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Ayman-Al-Zawahiri, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Charting Bin Laden's Death Among Arabic-Speaking Hardcore Jihadis Online

Here's the third, and for now, final, installment of jihadist forum analysis, this time focusing on the Ansar Al-Mujahideen Arabic-language forum. I'm putting up some raw data for the moment, and hopefully I will have some time to compile a more sophisticated thought or two on the analysis over the next few weeks. I welcome any analysis from readers in the meantime, tweet at me to discuss. Keep in mind this is raw data that could use another set of eyes, so allow for probably about a 5 percent margin of error.

Previously:

Ansar English forum results

Hanein Arabic forum results

Ansar Al-Mujahideen Arabic is a full-on jihadist forum, unlike the Hanein forum I looked at the the last installment. More on this in a bit. For now here are the results for the first four weeks after the death of Osama bin Laden.

Predictably, Ansar users, consisting of hardcore jihadists ideologically aligned with Al Qaeda, were most concerned with the death of Osama bin Laden. There were 2104 threads created on Ansar during the sample period. Osama bin Laden was the main focus of 648 threads, with 231 devoted to Arab Spring developments, and four pertaining to Anwar Awlaki.

As far as the weak Awlaki number, I wouldn't read too much into this without more data. For instance, most references to Zawahiri were either in the context of bin Laden's death or a new media release, and Awlaki didn't have any media out in May except for Inspire, which was duly noted. I'd like to examine this more over time and on a more normal month.

The breakdown of Arab Spring countries looks like this:

The country totals are:

Algeria -- 6
Bahrain -- 3
Egypt -- 89
Jordan -- 17
Libya -- 12
Morocco -- 21
Multiple/general -- 21
Syria -- 29
Tunisia -- 13
Unclear reference -- 2
Yemen -- 10

As I found in the Hanein forum, Syria was the second-most referenced Arab Spring country, which makes me think we need to see some more reporting about jihadist interest/influence there than what the mainstream media has provided so far. As with Hanein, and not surprisingly, Egypt was the clear winner as the country most referenced. But again, the comparison the Palestinian-issues yields a surprising result.

There were 89 posts pertaining primarily to Egyptian political developments vs. only 84 posts about Palestinian issues, and many of the latter were largely content-free gestures attempting to tack bin Laden's death on to the Palestinian cause. The sample period included significant developments on Palestinian issues between majors speeches by Obama and Netanyahu as well as international movement toward recognizing a Palestinian state. So the fact that Egypt wins even among hardcore jihadists suggests to me that we might want to examine some of our precoceptions about the primacy of the Palestinian conflict in the hearts of jihadists. However, I caution that this is too preliminary and too small a sample to jump to any big conclusions.

Ansar also featured more generalized discussions about the Arab Spring than the more nationalistic Hanein forum, mainly because jihadists are having trouble crafting an ideological response to recent developments. But for the overall focus, Hanein (which used to have a much more jihadist orientation) shows that the Arab Spring may indeed prove to be a significant threat to the jihadist movement. Consider the following chart which excludes the "other" category:

Both Ansar and Hanein had roughly the same number of threads created during the sample period, 2104 versus 2315 respectively. So the strength of their conversations are pretty comparable. But the exodus of Hanein users in recent months from a primarily Salafist-jihadist orientation to more of what I guess you would call a militant-nationalist orientation is pretty striking.

More on all of this soon.

For more about how American jihadists use the Internet, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Charting Bin Laden's Death On An Arabic-Language, Jihad-Friendly Forum

Following up on my chart of topics from the English-speaking online jihadists for the first four weeks after bin Laden's death, I decided to examine one of the Arabic-language forums to see how the emphasis compared.

In the English-speaking forum I looked at, Ansar Al Mujahideen, interest in the death of Osama bin Laden dwarfed interest in the Arab Spring.

For comparison, I decided to look at the Hanein forum, which bills itself as "an independent network that seeks to Preach for Allah as well as for what is best to serve the Islamic nation." I picked Hanein in part because I follow it fairly regularly and in part for technical reasons related to how I'm mining the data.

Hanein vs. Ansar English is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Hanein was once a higher-tier jihadist forum that went through a shutdown and various problems before re-emerging in its present form.

Aaron Weisburd at Internet Haganah characterizes Hanein as suffering " from a certain amount of not-Islamicly-correct nationalism," and has recently stopped listing it as a jihadist forum. So it's an interesting barometer for folks who might as easily swing either toward an Islamist extremist orientation or toward a more secular political orientation.

The posts I examined were taken from its "news" subsection, whereas the Ansar posts were taken from all posts. Hanein is a much more complicated forum with more sections and subsections. Most of the impact of that difference falls under the "other" category but it does skew things somewhat toward the Arab Spring over the death of bin Laden.

I ran through this data myself, once, which is all the time I can afford to commit to this right now, so keep in mind that the data could most definitely use a second set of eyes. Figure a 2 to 5 percent margin of error because of that. With caveats in place, here's what I found in the four weeks following the death of Osama bin Laden.



There were 2315 total threads created during the four-week period, consisting of 750 mainly related to the Arab Spring, 340 mainly related to the death of Osama bin Laden, and just three related to Anwar Awlaki, whom I include as a point of comparison due to my own interest in American jihadists (cue obligatory book plug).

That's a sharp difference from the English-language Ansar forum results for the same period, where bin Laden handily trounced the Arab Spring as a topic of conversation.



Even allowing for the differences in forum structure noted above, I think this is significant. There are a number of possible reasons for the difference. Obviously, jihadists for whom English is a primary language will be living in the West more often than those for whom Arabic is a first language. So Hanein's users are geographically closer to the Middle East and its uprisings in addition to its aforementioned shift in character.

But it's worth noting that Ansar users are not only less interested in the Middle East but less interested in politics generally. Most of the "other" entries from Ansar are battlefield reports from jihadists in various locations. There isn't much conversation about world events, although it's not totally absent.

Since Hanein has a much bigger sample size (more than four times as many posts), it's worth looking at the breakdown of topics a little bit more. First, here's how the Arab Spring section breaks down:



Here are the totals, listed alphabetically:

1. Algeria -- 15
2. Bahrain -- 15
3. Egypt -- 276
4. Iraq -- 2
5. Jordan -- 7
6. Libya -- 115
7. Morocco -- 32
8. General (multiple countries) -- 37
9. Oman -- 2
10. Syria -- 174
11. Tunisia -- 15
12. Unclear reference -- 7
13. Yemen -- 50

I will admit to being surprised by these numbers. Most notably, I would have expected that Libya and Yemen would make a stronger showing than Syria. Yemen and the Gulf (excluding Iraq) are not generally well represented in the sample.

Here's a look at the breakdown of Arab Spring vs. Bin Laden vs. Palestine. Totals here are slightly off due to some posts having more than one coded topic.



Interesting here is the relative weakness of Palestinian issues. There were 269 posts on Palestine compared to 276 on Egypt and 340 on bin Laden. I can understand Bin Laden trumping Palestine given the uniqueness of that event, but Egypt's narrow win was noteworthy, especially given fairly major developments on the Palestinian issue relating to speeches by Obama and Netanyahu.

Several posts were about both Egypt and Palestine, regarding likely and actual changes in border security and political positions.

Otherwise, the posts on Egypt covered a pretty wide gamut of topics, including Mubarak schadenfreude, general uprising news, and (based on an eyeball estimate) a fairly significant number of posts regarding sectarian violence, particularly in Imbaba.

For more about how American jihadists use the Internet, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Arab-Spring, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Charting Bin Laden's Death Among English-Speaking Jihadis Online

It's been four weeks since the death of Osama bin Laden. I thought it might be interesting to take a look at activities on one of the more significant English language jihadist forums -- Ansar Al Mujahideen. Click here for stats from the Arabic Hanein forum.

See also:

Charting Bin Laden's Death Among Arabic-Speaking Hardcore Jihadis Online

Charting Bin Laden's Death On An Arabic-Language, Jihad-Friendly Forum

Over the last four weeks, there were 525 threads created on Ansar, of which 111 were primarily concerned with bin Laden and his death. By way of comparison, 27 threads dealt mainly with the Arab Spring and only two were devoted to Anwar Awlaki (this among English-speaking jihadis, his supposed core constituency).

The following breakdown by week shows the progression of the story. Ansar was down two days during the first week and one day during the second week, but even so you can see the spike. At its peak, the death of bin Laden took up 37.1 percent of the forum's threads.

Of the Arab Spring threads, Libya and Yemen were very well represented, with other fronts receiving only an occasional mention. The "other" category includes the usual press releases from various jihad fronts, announcements of media releases and news stories about jihad from mainstream media.

Roughly a third of the bin Laden threads were based on mainstream news sources. The spike in postings on the second week came with the official confirmation of bin Laden's death by Al Qaeda, and a series of condolence statements from various AQ affiliates.

The data set includes threads deleted by moderators and threads with duplicate content posted by different authors. Exact duplicate threads were deleted. I judged the content based primarily on the headlines but looked up individual threads when the headline was unclear.

On the Arab Spring category, I had to make judgment calls on a couple of threads dealing with fighting in Yemen. Threads primarily concerned with AQAP were omitted from the count (there were only a handful like this), but threads describing fighting without citing AQAP in the headline were counted as Arab Spring references.

Here's a look at the bin Laden thread titles, sorted by date:

Is our Shaikh Osama Bin Laden dead?

Sheikh Usama bin Laden reported shaheed (Insha'Allah) by the kuffar

May Allah increase you rank in Jannah o Sheikh Usamah!

CNN : Inside the Raid of Killing "Sheikh Usamah"

::: Video Statement ::: Commander Waliu al-Rahman H.A / Sheikh Osama Bin laden is alive and doing well!

Ex-CIA Official - Bin Laden Should Be Respected

Fake Picture circulating of the Body of Shaykh Usama (Fake!!!!!)

IEA: Statement by the Official Spokesman about What Obama Announced Regarding the Martyrdom of Shaykh Usama Bin Laden 5/3/2011

The moment of the raid in pictures

::: Video Statement ::: Commander Waliu al-Rahman H.A / Sheikh Osama Bin laden is alive and doing well!

{{{{{obama Killed}}}}}

Usama is Alive!!! Sheikh Husain b. Mahmoud

Pakistan Refuses To Hand Over Bin Laden's Shot Wife To US

Yemen's Qaeda vows to avenge bin Laden

::: New Artcile ::: [ Sheikh Osama Bin Laden between Jihad and Martydom for the sake of Allah ] "By the poor servant of Allah (ANSAR)"

Advice to Muslims on the Death of Osama bin Ladin by Sheikh Haitham al-Haddad

As-Sahab Media ::Presents:: Why do not grieve over your heart? "By Sheikh Khalid al-Hosainaan H.A"

Top Al shabaab official denies he was killed

Egypt Salafi Cleric Says Bin Laden Died A Martyr

Obama REFUSES to release photos of OBL

# The Victory of Allah is near # As-Sahab Media ::Presents:: Jihad of the Soul "By Sheikh Khalid al-Hosainaan H.A"

Al-Andalus Media: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: "Condolence and Congratulation for the Ummah on its Loss of Our Shaykh Usama bin Laden

Al-Fajr Media: The General Command of Al-Qaedah: A Statement Concerning the Defiant Battle, and the Martyrdom of Sheikh Usama bin Laden (may Allah have mercy on him)

Al-Qaida group in Iraq supports Zawahiri, vows revenge for bin Laden death

GIMF: The General Command of Al-Qaedah "You Live a Praised Life and You Died a Marty"- A Statement Concerning the Defiant Battle, & the Martyrdom of Usama bin Laden R.A.

Interview: Michael Scheuer, former CIA bin Laden tracker

Osama bin Laden “Bleeds” US Economy, Strategy Remains In Place

Pakistan PM: 'We Did Not Hide Bin Laden'

Pentagon releases new Osama bin Laden footage

The Cost of bin Laden: $3 Trillion Over 15 Years

Dar Al Murabiteen Publications- Farewell O Honourable Shiekh!

Demo + Janazah in London for Shaykh Usama after Jummah

Islamic State of Iraq / Statement on the Martyrdom of the Mujahid Shaykh Usama bin Laden ||05-09

Kavkaz , UnJust Media "Command of al-Qaeda confirms martyrdom of Sheikh Osama bin Laden"

Reaction to Martherdom(InshaAllah) of Shaykh Osama(rahimAllah) from Turkey!

Statement of the Leadership Council of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Regarding the Martyrdom of the Great Martyr Sheik Osama bin Laden

How Jihadis are reacting to bin Laden's death

I met Sheikh Osama Bin Laden

# Here We Renew The Covenant # A Collection of Video & Audio Statements "The

Legacy of Sheikh Usama bin Laden" (may Allah accept him)

Abdullah Azzam Brigades || Statement to the Ummah - Usama You are the Glory and the Splendor

Ansar al-Islam: Congratulating the Islamic nation on the occasion of the martyrdom of the Lion of Islam the Mujahid Abu Abdillah Usama bin Laden

Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: Presents: Visual Excerpts from the Words of Shaykh al-Jihad {Osama bin Laden} may Allah accept him

In the Footsteps of Sheikh Osama Bin Laden

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan statement about the martyrdom of Sheik Osama bin Laden

Joint Statement from Shamukh al-Islam & Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: The Rise of Our Imams, Verily We are Walking in Their Footsteps

Muslims VS Munafiq: Clashes between Muslims and Munafiq "Imam" in Kuwait regarding performing Salaat "al-Gha'ib"for Osama Bin Laden R.A (Images and video)

Somalia's al Shabaab vows to avenge bin Laden

Statement from Al-Fajr Center for Media || Condolences and Congratulations to the

Islamic Ummah on the Occasion of the Martyrdom of the Lion of Islam, Shaykh Usama

Statement from Al-Fajr Media Center: Condolence and Congratulations to the Ummah of Islam at the Event of the Martyrdom of the Lion of Islam, Sheikh Usama bin Laden

Statement from Minbar at-Tawḥid wa’l-Jihad: On the Martyrdom of Shaykh al-Mujahideen and Jihād, Sheikh Usama bin Laden (may Allah accept him in Eleeyeen)

Yemeni Al-Qaeda chief warns jihad will intensify

Bin Laden Sons Say U.S. Broke International Law

CNN: Reports about the escape of Hamza bin Osama bin Laden from the American raid on the Abbottabad

Flashpoint Partners: Exclusive Interview with TTP Spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan: Threatens Pakistan and US for UBL’s Death

I knew Bin Laden - Aljazeera program

Statement Issued by the Sons of Sheikh Usama bin Laden

Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: Legacy of Sheikh Osama bin Laden may Allah accepted him (Video & Audio)

Missing: One 'Crown Prince Of Terror' (Hamza bin Laden)
Pictures from the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen conference entitled: 'We are all Usama'

Somalia's Islamists vow to avenge bin Laden's death

The Islamic Emirate Of Afghanistan: The Martyrdom Of Sheikh Osama Will Not Benefit America

The Islamic Emirate Of Afghanistan: The Martyrdom Of Sheikh Osama Will Not Benefit America

Al Jazeera World: I knew bin Laden

Bin Laden's wife: 'I want to be martyred with you'

Eulogies and fury: Jihadists eager to avenge bin Laden's death

Noam Chomsky: My Reaction to Osama bin Laden’s Death

**TAKBIR!** |REVENGE| Twin bombs kill at least 80 FC apostates in Charsadda, Pakistan

Abu Mansour Al-Ameriki speech at the "We are all Osama" conference

AQAP: Crusader-USA Will Miss The Days When Shaykh Usamah (RH) Was Alive

How Did Shaykh Usamaah earn his martyrdom?

IEA: Martyrdom Of Shaykh Usamah Will Not Benefit Crusader-USA

Bin Laden death: Security fears for US Navy Seal team

English translation of "Interview of Shaykh Usamah bin Laden (Rahimahullah) with

Al-Jazeera reporter Tayseer Allouni on Shaban 5, 1422 A.H. (October 21st, 2001)"

Kuffar want to insult our Beloved Sheikh Osama (ra)

GIMF: Obituary and Congratulation to the Ummah of Islam for the Martyrdom of the Lion of Islam, Usama bin Laden

Sheikh Osama and Inspire Magazine

Pakistan Gov says Drone Strikes must stop, no enquiry for Bin Laden Raid

Get To Know Shaykh Usamah (RH) Through His Risalah

In the memory of beloved Sheikh OSAMA BIN LADEN

Obama's Grandmother Threatened by Al-Qaida

Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus: Emir Dokku Abu Usman (HA) talks about Sheikh Usama, the losses suffered by the mujahideen, and the Arab revolutions

Al-Qadisiyyah Media: Urdu Translation of the Statement Concerning the Defiant Battle, & the Martyrdom of Usama bin Laden R.A.

Chechnya: Amir Dokku Abu-Uthman Speaks On Shaykh Usamah Ibn Ladin (RH) & Casualties Of Mujahideen

Clarifying The Lame-Old-Claim Of Shaykh Usamah Ibn Ladin (RH) Being An 'Agent'

Youth Mujahideen Movement [General Command]: Message of condolence for the martyrdom of Imam Sheikh Usama bin Laden (May Allah Have Mercy On Him)

Youth Mujahideen Movement: Holding a Jihadist Conference entitled "We Are All Usama" in the Islamic province of Lower Shabelle (05/16/2011)

Al Qaeda after Bin Laden - Abdel Bari Atwan

Al Qaeda releases posthumous bin Laden audio recording

Munafiqeen Rejoice: Shaykh Abdul-Muhsin Al-'Abbaad on the Killing of Bin Laden 'al-Khaarijee'

Osama Bin Laden's Death: A Leader's Wish Fulfilled | Abdel Bari Atwan

Pakistani Newspaper: Saifal Adel made acting al-Qaeda chief

Pakistani Taliban warns of Retaliation for Sheikh Usama's Martyrdom
So-

Called Scholars view of Sheikh Usama Ibn Ladin (Rahimahullah)

Why bin Laden was radicalized - Abdel Bari Atwan

"Shaykh Bin Laden's Wives and Children are Our Kinsfolk and Honour; Every Muslim is Duty Bound to Defend their Honour" - Abdel Bari Atwan

As-Sahab Media: presents: The Last Speech of the Martyr of Islam - as we see him - [Shaykh Usama Bin Laden] "To The Muslim Ummah"

"Security and Intelligence" - by the Commander Saif al-Adel with an Explanation by Abdullah Bin Adam

Last public word of Shaykh Osamah bin Laden RA)

Jihad Media Center: Presents: [Transcript] ~ [Graphic Design] of the Speech by the Lion, Sheikh Usama bin Laden "To the Muslim Ummah"

O American... this is Osama // Penned by Sheikh Husain Bin Mahmoud (H.A)

Anger simmers in Pakistani army over bin Laden raid

GIMF: The English translation of As-Sahab's audio release - The Speech by the Martyr of Islam (As We Consider Him‪)‬ The Mujahid Sheikh Usama Bin Laden - May Allah Have

Professor Abdel-Bari Atwan, commenting on the martyrdom of Shaykh Usama Bin Laden [(ARABIC)]

Sheikh Uthaymeen regarding his meeting with Sheikh Usama Rahimahullah
Tehreek Taliban Pakistan: The Expedition of Sheikh Usama bin Laden R.A {Karachi}

From Usama bin Laden to his muslim ummah (bosnian)

A consolidated statement of between AMEF, AMAF and Shumukh on the killing of Sheikh Usama Bin Laden R.A.

Sudan: Statement On Sh.Usamah Ibn Laadin by Dr. Abdul Hayy Yousef

The Allegiance of Commander az-Zarqaawee (Rahimahullah) to the Shaykh of the Mujaahideen, Shaykh Osamah ibn Ladin (Rahimahullah)

Soon with the Permission of Allah(swt) from As-Sahab Media Foundation

do they hate osama ra?

For more about how American jihadists use the Internet, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink