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News, documents and analysis on violent extremismSunday, February 22, 2009
The Peril of PakistanAs if the situation in Pakistan wasn't precarious enough, there are now rumblings that the upcoming Indian elections could push that country into a more confrontational posture with its northwestern neighbor.Should India's hawkish Bharatiya Janata Party take power, Pakistan could be caught in a deadly vise, with a forced redeployment of military might to the Indian border and away from the Taliban. The Pakistani Taliban have already demonstrated they have the clout to force a near-complete capitulation from the Pakistani government in the Swat province -- and the Taliban have since consolidated rival factions in North and South Waziristan. The situation in Pakistan has almost nowhere to go except further into chaos. Almost any regime change in Pakistan -- with the possible exception of a military coup -- is going to create an intractable problem for U.S. national security, and one that will dwarf both Iraq and Afghanistan in the final analysis. It's hard to imagine any outcome that helps either U.S. or regional security interests, and it's far too easy to imagine any number of outcomes that end with a nuclear detonation. History will harshly judge the American failure to anticipate the impending disaster of Pakistan. It was all too predictable -- and it was eminently predictable before the U.S. squandered its resources and alliances on an unnecessary war in Iraq. The problem of Pakistan was daunting before Iraq. Now, it's virtually impossible. At this stage, we're left with only a bare hope that some unexpected and improbable miracle can change the playing field before it's too late. UPDATE: And less than 12 hours later, here's a punctuation mark on this comment from the always impressive Long War Journal: Waziristan Taliban alliance declares support for Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar Labels: Weblog Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.
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BOOKS"...smart, granular analysis..."ISIS: The State of TerrorMore on ISIS: The State of Terror "...a timely warning...""At a time when some politicians and pundits blur the line between Islam and terrorism, Berger, who knows this subject far better than the demagogues, sharply cautions against vilifying Muslim Americans. ... It is a timely warning from an expert who has not lost his perspective." -- New York Times More on Jihad Joe ABOUT![]() RECENTNewest posts!9/11 Commission, FBI Source Documents, Chronologic... 9/11 Commission, FBI Source Documents, Chronologic... Exporting Terrorist Tactics From Iraq State Department Analysis: Exporting Terrorist Tac... State Department Analysis: Exporting Terrorist Tac... 9/11 Commission, Memorandum For The Record, Commis... 9/11 Commission, Memorandum For The Record, Commis... Saudi Arabia's 85 Most Wanted 9/11 Commission, Memorandum For The Record, FBI In... 9/11 Commission, Memorandum For The Record, FBI In... EXCLUSIVESNew York Pipe Bomb Suspect Linked to Revolution Muslim The Utility of Lone Wolves Interview with Online Jihadist Abu Suleiman Al Nasser A Way Forward for CVE: The Five Ds How Terrorists Use The Internet: Just Like You PATCON: The FBI's Secret War on the Militia Movement Interview About Jihad With Controversial Cleric Bilal Philips Forgeries on the Jihadist Forums U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki State Department Secretly Met With Followers of Blind Sheikh State Department Put 'Political Pressure' On FBI To Deport Brother-in-Law Of Osama Bin Laden In 1995 FBI Records Reveal Details Of Nixon-Era Racial Profiling Program Targeting Arabs Gaza Flotilla Official Was Foreign Fighter in Bosnia War U.S. Had 'High Confidence' Of UBL Attack In June 2001 Behind the Handshake: The Rumsfeld-Saddam Meeting |