INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 11/9/15: CVE Process, Assessing Foreign Fighter Counts, ISIS Allies Slip Away, and More

Step-by-step Online CVE
The world continues to deal with the offline consequences of how ISIS works online, hunting among the fringes of society for those rare individuals who can be convinced to act on its behalf. Its success comes in part from volume -- social media makes it possible to sift efficiently through more potential recruits than ever before. But while the process ISIS employs to achieve its goals contributes to its relative success, it also opens windows for disruption.

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

Foreign (Terrorist) Fighter Estimates: Conceptual and Data Issues
This Policy Brief - a short version of a larger Research Paper to be released by ICCT in late 2015 - focuses on the phenomenon of foreign (terrorist) fighters (FTFs) as it relates to Syria and Iraq. It concentrates on recruits to jihad and the astonishing growth in numbers from less than 1,000 in 2011 to more than 3,500 in 2012, 8,500+ in 2013, 18,000+ in 2014 to more than 25,000 by fall 2015. By October 2015, nearly 30,000 militants from more than 100 countries had become foreign fighters with the so-called “Islamic State” (IS) in Syria and Iraq and other militant groups. By Alex P. Schmid.

“New terrorism” = higher brutality? An empirical test of the “brutalization thesis”
This article focuses on the so-called “brutalization” of terrorism. The brutalization thesis as part of the larger theoretical concept of “new terrorism” argues that “new terrorism” is more brutal than “old terrorism.” Many scholars claim that the 9/11 attacks mark the beginning of a new era of terrorism that has lifted international as well as domestic terrorism to a new level of violent brutality. Others argue that this process had already started in the early 1990s.By Sebastian Jäckle and Marcel Baumann.

ISIS WATCH

ISIS at the Gyro King
When two young men were arrested en route to Syria, the Uzbeks of Brooklyn felt upset, maligned, and only a little sympathetic. By Mark Jacobson.

As U.S. Escalates Air War on ISIS, Allies Slip Away
As the United States prepares to intensify airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria, the Arab allies who with great fanfare sent warplanes on the initial missions there a year ago have largely vanished from the campaign.

ISIL and the Taliban
Raising its black flag over the rugged mountainous regions of Afghanistan, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has emerged as a new threat to the war-ravaged country as it battles the Taliban for supremacy. By Najibullah Quraishi and Jamie Doran.

F.B.I. to Help Russia Investigate Plane Crash in Egypt
The F.B.I. has agreed to help the Russian government with its investigation into the deadly crash of a Russian charter plane in the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, senior American officials said on Saturday.

U.S. Troops in Syria: A Quick Assessment Of The U.S. Strategy To Combat The Islamic State
It’s been nearly a year since the U.S. convened its “Counter ISIL Coalition” and in short, when all was said and done, more has been said than done. By Clint Watts.

Russia halts Egypt flights amid widening probes into Sinai crash
Reversing its earlier position, the Kremlin on Friday announced that it would suspend flights to Egypt in a growing consensus with Western officials that a bomb may have caused a Russian passenger jet to crash over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula last weekend.

France to authorise 'military intervention against Isil' on home soil
French prime minister could push through new rules to authorise "army intervention in France against Isil" by early next year, say reports.

U.S. Cut Cash to Iraq on Iran, ISIS Fears
The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department temporarily shut off the flow of billions of dollars to Iraq’s central bank this summer as concerns mounted that the currency was ending up at Iranian banks and possibly being funneled to Islamic State militants.

TERROR WATCH

Anonymous leaks identities of 350 alleged Ku Klux Klan members
List of names and social media accounts mentioned alleged FBI informants and those who already publicly identify as members of white supremacist group.

What happens when an online ‘leak’ says you’re a Ku Klux Klan member
Although Anonymous has often said that it believes doxxing represents a powerful tool for transparency in the name of the greater good, the vigilante activists don’t always get their information right (the same can be said, often, of the Internet shame cycle in general), and mistakes that can lead to nightmares for those who are incorrectly identified.

Two Americans and South African killed at police training centre in Jordan
Jordanian police officer kills three people and injures four others in shooting spree on outskirts of Amman.

Boston Men Accused of Hate Crimes; Police Say They Cited Trump
Two Boston brothers accused of urinating on and beating a homeless Mexican man have been charged with hate crimes after being quoted by police as saying, "Donald Trump was right, all these illegals need to be deported."

Yemen: 'The children have a game called airstrike in which they fall to the ground'
MSF emergency coordinator Karline Kleijer reports on three weeks in Taiz, a city on the frontline of the seven-month-long conflict.

Buy the new book ISIS: The State of Terror by Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger.

Buy J.M. Berger's seminal book on American jihadists, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam