INTELWIRE Weekly Brief, 2/6/2015

In the wake of the so-called Islamic State's latest atrocity, the horrific death by fire inflicted on Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasaesbeh, a now-familiar refrain began to circulate through the media: "ISIS has miscalculated, and the backlash against this video may be its undoing."

Variations on this statement have been heard for months and months, appearing like clockwork with each iteration of ISIS's graphically violent propaganda. It was an understandable opinion last year, when ISIS was releasing videos of prisoners being forced to dig their own graves before being executed. By the time the James Foley video came out in the summer, it should have been clear that the backlash was not something ISIS had omitted from its calculations, but an integral part of the effect it was trying to achieve.

Nevertheless, many people, including myself at times, have reached for this comforting, if wrong, formulation. When ISIS executed British aid worker Alan Henning, everyone solemnly proclaimed that this time ISIS had gone too far, miscalculated and the backlash would devastate them. When they killed American Abdul Rahman Kassig, a convert to Islam, everyone lined up to say this time ISIS had gone too far, miscalculated and the backlash would devastate them.

When ISIS publicizes its inhuman horrors, its goal is to infuriate and horrify its enemies, to create divisions within the coalition fighting it, and to draw more and more countries ever deeper into the conflict. The "gone too far" theme may be reassuring, but it's dangerous. We shouldn't be congratulating ourselves for reacting to ISIS propaganda exactly as ISIS intends.


RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

While ISIS once again dominated the headlines (its strongest asset as a terrorist group), It was a strong week in research on the broader but often less covered aspects of the Syrian war:

The Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its Regional Effects
The web of Iran-backed Shiite proxies is exceedingly complex, with much overlap and many changing aliases. In this new Institute study, Phillip Smyth -- a prominent blogger and University of Maryland researcher -- deftly navigates these many groups, exploring topics such as the narrative of pan-Shiite jihad, the range of Shiite clerical views on the jihad, recruitment techniques, and weapons used. His discussion compellingly shows why pursuing U.S. regional interests must involve targeting not only ISIS but also its Shiite adversaries.

Behind the Syrian Conflict's Digital Front Lines
Physical conflicts increasingly have a cyber element to them. This report highlights how Syrian opposition forces fell victim to a well-executed hacking operation targeting secret communications and plans. FireEye researchers uncovered these stolen documents as part of our ongoing threat research. Between at least November 2013 and January 2014, the hackers stole a cache of critical documents and Skype conversations revealing the Syrian opposition’s strategy, tactical battle plans, supply needs, and troves of personal information and chat sessions belonging to the men fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces. While we do not know who conducted this hacking operation, if this data was acquired by Assad’s forces or their allies it could confer a distinct battlefield advantage. ISIS WATCH

The Microsoft of Terrorism: Al Qaeda Loses Touch
Put simply, al Qaeda’s traditionally preeminent position in the jihadi hierarchy, long on the wane, is slipping still further. U.S. officials, for their part, are increasingly focused on the Islamic State, or ISIS, which continues to deliver a steady flow of battlefield victories and brutal beheadings. Yet al Qaeda has a clear path back to contention: a dramatic follow-up to the Hebdo attack. And with the group’s need for a win so great, Washington would be mistaken to count it out.
After Jordanian pilot’s death, king signals he will escalate fight against Islamic State
Jordan’s King Abdullah II vowed Wednesday that his military forces would hit Islamic State militants with “relentless” strikes upon “their own homes,” an escalation that could place Jordan in the middle of the Syrian civil war.

Reluctant Islamic State fighters choose between death, jail
While foreigners from across the world have joined the Islamic State militant group, some find day-to-day life in Iraq or Syria much more austere and violent than they had expected. These disillusioned new recruits also soon discover that it is a lot harder to leave than to join. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the Islamic State group has killed 120 of its own members in the past six months, most of them foreign fighters hoping to return home.

In Islamic State Stronghold of Raqqa, Foreign Fighters Dominate
In Islamic State’s de facto capital of Raqqa, a Syrian city on the banks of the Euphrates, few Syrians hold positions of power these days. Running the show, residents say, are the thousands of foreigners who have converged there to establish an Islamic utopia they believe will soon conquer the planet.

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