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News, documents and analysis on violent extremismFriday, June 28, 2013
A Modest Test of Terrorism Forecasting with Google Trends
I was reading this piece on forecasting terrorist attacks, and I was reminded that it's been a while since I played Google Trends bingo.
So here are several forecasts related to terrorist attacks and other things, courtesy of Google Trends, which extrapolates future Google searches based on past ones.
This is arguably the purest kind of Big Data crowdsourcing forecast because it factors in all the things that invisibly make people search for something on Google.
It should be taken with large grains of salt -- as should all claims of forecasting terrorist attacks and sundry events -- but let's get it on the record and see.
Search: Bomb. Forecast: December 2013
Search: Lone Wolf. Forecast: January 2014
Search: Terrorist, attack. Forecast: May 2014
 
Search: Protest, riot. Forecast: June 2014
Search: Nuclear accident. Forecast: April 2014
Search: Stock market crash. Forecast: November 2013
 Search: Shooting. Forecast: August 2013 (it's worth noting that my previous efforts to forecast also returned August 2013 as a likely search peak) 
Search: Massacre. Forecast: July 2013
Search: Terrorism. Forecast: May 2014
 Buy J.M. Berger's book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam RECENT PUBLICATIONS Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.
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BOOKS"...smart, granular analysis..."ISIS: The State of Terror 
"Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger's new book, "ISIS," should be required reading for every politician and policymaker... Their smart, granular analysis is a bracing antidote to both facile dismissals and wild exaggerations... a nuanced and readable account of the ideological and organizational origins of the group." -- Washington Post
More on ISIS: The State of Terror "...a timely warning..."  Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam:
"At a time when some politicians and pundits blur the line between Islam and terrorism, Berger, who knows this subject far better than the demagogues, sharply cautions against vilifying Muslim Americans. ... It is a timely warning from an expert who has not lost his perspective." -- New York Times More on Jihad Joe ABOUT
RECENTNewest posts!Weeks Before Assassination, Bhutto Complained to U... 2007 State Department Intelligence Report: Who Kil... Eric Harroun, Indictment and Affidavit in Support ... Understanding NSA Data Collection and Locations I appeared on a Google Hangout to discuss online r... The FBI's History of Spying on Journalists The Roots of Radicalization Myths of Radicalization Forecasting Terrorist Attacks With Big Data and th... J.M. Berger on Marathon Bombings EXCLUSIVESNew York Pipe Bomb Suspect Linked to Revolution Muslim The Utility of Lone Wolves Interview with Online Jihadist Abu Suleiman Al Nasser A Way Forward for CVE: The Five Ds How Terrorists Use The Internet: Just Like You PATCON: The FBI's Secret War on the Militia Movement Interview About Jihad With Controversial Cleric Bilal Philips Forgeries on the Jihadist Forums U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki State Department Secretly Met With Followers of Blind Sheikh State Department Put 'Political Pressure' On FBI To Deport Brother-in-Law Of Osama Bin Laden In 1995 FBI Records Reveal Details Of Nixon-Era Racial Profiling Program Targeting Arabs Gaza Flotilla Official Was Foreign Fighter in Bosnia War U.S. Had 'High Confidence' Of UBL Attack In June 2001 Behind the Handshake: The Rumsfeld-Saddam Meeting |
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